2016-08-12 14:25:19

Review and dynamics
After yesterday’s decisions to lower the interest rate in New Zealand and weak data on US labor productivity in Q2, the pair AUD/USD closed yesterday's trading day at the closing price of Wednesday.

Today, the pair AUD/USD has slightly fell, despite the support from the rising oil prices. At the beginning of this month, the RBA reduced the interest rate and indicated that further rate cuts in Australia are possibly. This fact is a strong negative factor for the AUD.

The pair AUD/USD had rebounded from the resistance level of 0.7750 (upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart) and fell below resistance level of 0.7720 (highs of March and May 2006). The pair AUD/USD remains in ascending channel on the daily chart with the upper limit near the level of 0.7820 (Fibonacci of 38.2% to the decline since July 2014) and is now at support level of 0.7675 (the highs of July).

However, upward momentum is fading away. On the daily chart the indicators OsMA and Stochastic are reversing toward the short positions.

Our opinion
In case of breakout of the resistance level of 0.7750, the pair AUD/USD may continue to rise to 0.7820 (Fibonacci 38.2% and highs of April), 0.7900 and 0.8000 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart). However, fundamental factors are unfavourable for the significant rise in the pair AUD/USD. On 4- hour chart the indicators give signals to sell.

In downtrend in the pair continues the price can go down to 0.7560 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 0.7445 ( Fibonacci 23.6%, ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the daily chart). In case of breakout of the level of 0.7445, the pair will go down to support level of 0.7325 or further down below the level of 0.7140 (lows of May).

Difference in the monetary policies of the US Fed and the RBA and low inflation will continue to put pressure on the Australian dollar.

Support levels: 0.7675, 0.7600, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7470, 0.7445, 0.7360, 0.7290, 0.7200 and 0.7140.
Resistance levels: 0.7720, 0.7750, 0.7800, 0.7820, 0.7900 and 0.8000.

Trading tips
Sell Stop: 0.7670. Stop-Loss: 0.7710. Take-Profit: 0.7600, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7470, 0.7445, 0.7360, 0.7290, 0.7200 and 0.7140.
Buy Stop: 0.7720. Stop-Loss: 0.7680. Take-Profit: 0.7750, 0.7800 and 0.7820.

In the ascending channel
In the ascending channel

Indicators give sell signals
Indicators give sell signals