2016-08-15 10:57:52

Technical data of the currency pair:

Previous closing: 101.27; Daily rang: 101.09-101.45;
Opening: 101.16; 52-week range: 99.08-124.64;
Annual income: -18.43%; Change in % for the previous day: -0.63.

Analytical review:

  • ​Since the end of July the JPY has grown by over 550 points against the USD. During trading session last Friday, the pair maintained resistance level of 102.20, and the Yen continued to rise;
  • According to the Japanese Ministry of economy, trade and industry, volume of industrial production in the country rose to 2.3% against the forecast of 1.9;
  • According to the information of the US Bureau of Census released last week, base index of retail sales amounted to -0.3% in July against the previous value of 0.9%;
  • “Commitments of Traders" shows ambiguous picture. Large investors have increased the number of long positions by 12426 contracts. Short positions have been increased by 3360 contracts;
  • The data scheduled for release this week will include: US basic consumer price index (Tuesday) and Fed Philadelphia index of manufacturing activity (Thursday). This news can affect the dynamics and volatility of the market.

Summary:

  • Poor US macro-economic statistics and positive Japanese statistics support demand for the JPY. According to “COT” large investors do not have common opinion about the JPY.
  • It is likely that the JPY will grow against the USD in the near future. It is advisable to open short positions.

Trading tips for the currency pair USD/JPY

Key levels:
Support levels: 100.95 and 99.95.
Resistance levels: 102.20 and 103.30.

Medium-term trading, H4
At the moment, the currency is traded at the support level of 100.95. After breaking out and testing of this level and in case of the respective confirmation (such as Price Action pattern), it is recommended to open short position. Risk per trade is not more than 2% of the capital. Stop order can be placed slightly above the signal line. Take profit can be placed in parts at the levels of 100.00, 99.50 and 99.00 with the use of trailing stop.

Medium-term trading, H4
Medium-term trading, H4

Short-term trading, М15
Currently, the currency is traded in the range of 100.85-101.15. It is advisable to enter the market after breaking out and testing of this zone. Positions can be opened near the signal line and the nearest support/resistance levels. Risk per trade is not more than 3% of capital. Stop order can be placed slightly above/below the signal line. Take profit can be placed in parts at the levels of 50%, 30% and 20% with the use of trailing stop.

Short-term trading, М15
Short-term trading, М15