2016-08-17 12:55:17

Overview and dynamics
The two most important events of the day for the oil market can stop the sharp rise in oil prices throughout August.

At 17:30 (GMT + 3) weekly data on oil and oil products reserves in the US will be published, and at 21:00 - minutes of the Fed meeting held on July 26-27. Since in early August the price of Brent oil rebounded from the support level 41.70 (38.2% Fibonacci correction level to the decrease from the level 65.30 to 2016 lows near the level 27.05) and broke through key resistance levels 45.65 (EMA200 on the daily chart) , 46.20 (Fibonacci level 50.0%), the upward momentum has been weakening.

Our opinion
Despite the fact that OsMA and Stochastic on the daily and weekly charts are on the side of the buyers, on 4-hour chart, the indicators reverse to short positions.

Support levels 46.20, 45.65 remain the key levels. In the event their breakdown the price will return to the downward trend that began in June, and into the descending channel on the daily chart with the lower limit near the level 41.00 and just below the support level 41.70 (Fibonacci level 38.2%).

However, positive expectations regarding the successful outcome of the OPEC meeting (26 - 28 September) still support oil prices. If the Fed's minutes, which are published today, have no unambiguous signals on the possibility of increasing rates in the US in the coming months, and US oil reserves have declined or remained flat in the past week (forecast - reduction of reserves by 0.333 million barrels), the oil price can continue to grow in the direction of the July and May highs near 50.00, 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).

In any case, to continue buying it is desirable to wait for OsMA and Stochastic to reverse to long positions on the 4-hour chart.

Support levels: 48.10, 47.40, 46.20, 45.65, 43.65, 41.70, 41.00
Resistance Levels: 50.00, 50.70


Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 48.20. Stop-Loss 48.75. Take-Profit 47.40, 46.20, 45.65, 43.65, 41.70, 41.00
Buy Stop 49.40. Stop-Loss 48.60. Take-Profit 50.00, 50.70, 51.00

The indicators reversed to sales
The indicators reversed to sales

Support levels 46.20, 45.65
Support levels 46.20, 45.65