2016-08-19 14:55:16

Overview and dynamics
After rising the previous day amid the weak data on GDP, labor productivity in the US for the 2nd quarter, and July publication of the minutes of the FOMC meeting, AUD/USD pair moved into negative territory today, as can be seen on the weekly candle. Last week’s growth is almost completely blocked, and at the beginning of today's European session, the decrease of AUD/USD pair is continuing.

AUD/USD pair rebounded from the resistance level 0.7750 (the upper limit of the upward channel on the daily chart) and today fell to the support level 0.7610 (EMA144 and the lower limit of the channel on the 4-hour chart).

OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and 4-hour charts have reversed to short positions.

Our opinion
So far AUD/USD pair remains in ascending channels on the daily and the weekly charts.

However, the upward momentum of the pair is fading out.

If the negative trend prevails, the downside targets for AUD/USD pair might be the levels 0.7560 (EMA50 on the daily chart), 0.7470 (EMA144, EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.7445 (23.6% Fibonacci level of the correction to the declining wave of the pair in July 2014). In the case of the breakdown of the level 0.7445 the pair will go to the support level 0.7325 with the prospect of further, more in-depth fall below the level 0.7140 (May lows).

The upward scenario will be supported in case of breaking the resistance level 0.7750, in this case AUD/USD pair may continue to grow to the levels 0.7820 (Fibonacci level 38.2%, April highs), 0.7900, 0.8000 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).

However, fundamental factors will restrain AUD/USD pair from a significant growth.

The difference in the orientation of monetary policies of the Fed and the RBA, low inflation in the country will put pressure on the Australian dollar.

Support levels: 0.7560, 0.7520, 0.7500, 0.7470, 0.7445, 0.7360, 0.7290, 0.7200, 0.7140
Resistance levels: 0.7675, 0.7720, 0.7750, 0.7800, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

Trading recommendations
Sell according to the market. Stop-Loss 0.7660. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7560, 0.7520, 0.7470, 0.7445, 0.7360, 0.7290, 0.7200, 0.7140
Buy Stop 0.7680. Stop-Loss 0.7630. Take-Profit 0.7720, 0.7750, 0.7800, 0.7820, 0.7900

At the support level 0.7610
At the support level 0.7610

In the upward channel
In the upward channel