2016-08-22 11:51:41


The main event for the dollar in the coming week will be the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Economists will continue to analyze just how much the UK's economy was affected by its decision to exit the EU (GDP for the 2nd quarter will be published). Also we will see the data on GDP for the 2nd quarter in Germany whose economy is the locomotive of the whole euro zone economy.

After the release of disappointing consumer prices indices in the US in July, as well as the minutes of the last meeting of the FOMC, last week the US dollar was down on the foreign exchange market. However, the dollar's decline paused on Friday with both closing of short positions on the dollar at the end of the trading week, and comments of a number of Fed officials about the future of monetary policy in the United States, who clearly spoke in favor of a gradual increase in interest rates in the United States.

As always, during the upcoming trading week we expect the publication of a number of important macroeconomic data and several important news.

Monday
15:30 (GMT +3) - Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) assesses the economic activity in the United States as a whole, as well as inflation risks.

Tuesday
07:00 - speech of Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda. In Saturday's issue of Sankei Shimbun newspaper Kuroda said that the central bank "will not hesitate to take further action to mitigate the monetary policy".

10:30 - Markit business activity index in Germany in August (pre-release).

11:00 - Markit business activity index in Eurozone in August (pre-release).

16:45 - Markit PMI index in the manufacturing sector of the US economy in August (pre-release).

17:00 - Sales of new homes in the US in July.

23:30 - American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its report on the change in US oil reserves last week.

Weekly rewiew for August 22 to 28, 2016

Wednesday
1:45 - New Zealand's trade balance for July. The forecast predicts trade deficit of 320 million New Zealand dollars, which will have a negative impact on the New Zealand dollar quotations.

08:00 - leading / coincident economic indicators index in Japan in June.

09:00 - Germany's GDP for the 2nd quarter (pre-release). Almost zero growth is expected (+ 0.4%).

09:00 - UBS consumption indicator in Switzerland. The indicator consists of five components (sales of new cars, level of activity in the retail sector, number of nights booked in hotels in Switzerland, level of consumer confidence and volume of credit card transactions) and reflects consumer confidence in their future and the state of the economy.

17:30 - US Department of Energy publishes its weekly report on US oil and oil products reserves.

Weekly rewiew for August 22 to 28, 2016

Thursday
Start of annual symposium of central bank representatives and economists in Jackson Hole (USA).

10:15 - industrial production in Switzerland in Q2.

11:00 - IFO business confidence and economic expectations indicators in Germany in August.

15:30 – initial jobless claims in the US for last week, orders for durable goods (manufacture of such products involves large investments) in July.

16:45 - Markit business activity index in the US services sector in August (pre-release).

Friday
Speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Speaking time will be announced separately. If J. Yellen gives a hint of the possibility of a rate hike in September, the dollar will strengthen sharply on the currency market.

2:30 - consumer price indices in Japan in July / August.

09:00 - consumer confidence index in Germany in September.

11:30 - UK GDP for the 2nd quarter (pre-release). It is expected to increase by 0.6% and by 2.2% y-o-y.

15:30 - pre-release of GDP price index and annual data on US GDP for the 2nd quarter (forecast - 1.1% growth). Inflation price and personal consumption expenditures index in the US for the 2nd quarter (pre-release). It is expected to increase by 1.9% and 1.7% respectively.

16:45 - Markit business activity index in the US in August.

20:00 – Report of oil services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotations of oil prices. Current value - 406 active rigs.

Weekly rewiew for August 22 to 28, 2016