2016-08-24 11:55:22

Overview and dynamics
After the lower expectations for consumer price inflation (3.5% in August compared to 3.7% in July) published August 11, the Australian dollar broke the series of almost uninterrupted growth since the beginning of August, and on the daily chart AUD/USD pair formed a Pin Bar. By itself, the Pin Bar is a reversal pattern. AUD/USD pair continues to realize the Pin Bar, however, the decline may pause. At the level 0.7595 AUD/USD pair found support (EMA200 and the lower limit of the rising channel on the 4-hour chart).

Our opinion
Today, the Australian dollar is also under pressure from falling oil prices after the data published yesterday by the American Petroleum Institute, according to which, the US stocks of oil and oil products last week rose to 4.464 million barrels.

However, the decline in AUD/USD pair may stall near the levels 0.7595, 0.7565 (EMA50 on the daily chart).

Stochastic on the 4-hour chart begins to reverse to long positions.

Today we are expecting the publication at 17:30 (GMT +3) of the data on oil reserves in the United States from the country's Ministry of Energy. If the reserves have increased, it will be a negative factor for oil prices and the Australian dollar, and vice versa.

In the case of the breakdown of the support level 0.7565, the decrease of AUD/USD pair may continue to the level 0.7520 (the lower limit of the upward channel on the daily chart), 0.7475 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7445 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the downward wave of the pair since July 2014).

If the negative trend prevails, the targets of further decline of AUD/USD pair then can be the levels 0.7325, 0.7140 (May lows).

At the time AUD/USD pair remains in the ascending channel on the daily chart. However, the upward momentum of the pair seems to be fading.

The upward scenario on the pair will be supported in the event of breakdown of the resistance level 0.7750 (August highs). Then, AUD/USD pair may continue to grow to the levels 0.7820 (Fibonacci level 38.2%, April highs), 0.7900, 0.8000 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).

The difference in the direction of monetary policies of the RBA and the Fed, low inflation in the country will put pressure on the Australian dollar.

Support levels: 0.7595, 0.7565, 0.7520, 0.7500, 0.7475, 0.7445, 0.7325, 0.7290, 0.7200, 0.7140
Resistance levels: 0.7675, 0.7720, 0.7750, 0.7800, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

Trading recommendations

Sell according to the market. Stop-Loss 0.7630. Take-Profit 0.7595, 0.7565, 0.7520, 0.7500, 0.7475, 0.7445
Buy Stop 0.7640. Stop-Loss 0.7590. Take-Profit 0.7675, 0.7720, 0.7750, 0.7800, 0.7820, 0.7900

In the upward channel
In the upward channel

Support on current levels
Support on current levels