2016-08-25 11:49:05

Prior to the speech of the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen scheduled for Friday at the symposium in Jackson Hole, today, the US dollar is trading in a narrow range against most of the rival currencies. The WSJ dollar index, which reflects the value of the US dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, fell 0.02% to 85.83.

Trading activity is low, traders are mainly adjusting their positions.

Yellen is expected to give signals about the possible timing of interest rate rise in the United States. However, most likely, Yellen will deliver general words about the current situation in the economy. It is unlikely that Janet Yellen will mention an interest rate increase in September, but she will probably say again that the rise in interest rates in the US this year is still possible. Nevertheless, surprises are possible, so the dollar's position on the foreign exchange market depends on Yellen's speech.

Yellen's speech is pre-scheduled for 17:00 (GMT +3) on Friday. In its anticipation multidirectional movements of currencies in narrow ranges are possible.

The New Zealand dollar reacted with restraint to the data on trade balance published yesterday at 01:45 (GMT +3). The trade balance in New Zealand in July was negative (-433 mln New Zealand dollars, -3.03 billion New Zealand dollars y-o-y). The volumes of exports and imports in July were lower than forecast. The export of meat products has fallen dramatically.

No other data is expected this week from New Zealand. All attention will be focused on the symposium in Jackson Hole and the speech of the Fed's Janet Yellen.

Many economists expect that after Jackson Hole the US currency will weaken again. The US dollar will strengthen on the foreign exchange market only in one case - if J. Yellen hints at the possibility of a rate hike in September.

NZD/USD: Trading activity is low. Fundamental analysis for 25.08.2016