2016-08-30 13:15:39

Overview and dynamics

USD/CHF has broken through the key resistance level 0.9760 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart). The sharp increase of the US dollar on statements of the Fed's representatives last Friday has also contributed to the growth of USD/CHF pair. The pair jumped around 100 points, and today the pair continues to grow, coming close to the resistance level 0.9820 (Fibonacci leve l38.2% of correction to the last global decline wave since December 2015 and from the level 1.0300).

Our opinion

It is likely that the positive dynamics of the dollar and USD/CHF pair will continue until the publication on Friday (15:30 GMT +3) of the NFPR report on the US labor market. However, a rise above the resistance level 0.9820 before this moment can be difficult. Most likely the pair will remain in a narrow range between the levels 0.9760, 0.9820.

But at the time of publication of NFPR volatility in USD/CHF pair will rise sharply.

In the case of the breakdown of the level 0.9820 USD/CHF pair will go to the levels 0.9910 (Fibonacci level 50.0%), 0.9950 (the upper line of the range between the levels 0.9950, 0.9520, where USD/CHF pair has been trading since March).

OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts are on the side of buyers.

On the other, on higher timeframes the indicators show a mixed trend.

The reverse scenario is connected with the return of USD/CHF pair below the support level 0.9705 (Fibonacci level 23.6%) towards the bottom of the range between the levels 0.9950, 0.9520.

Long positions still look more attractive. If data on the US labor market is strong in August, it will increase the likelihood of an early increase in US interest rates, and this is a positive factor for the dollar, and vice versa.

Support levels: 0.9760, 0.9705, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9580, 0.9520
Resistance levels: 0.9820, 0.9910, 0.9950, 1.0000

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 0.9750. Stop-Loss 0.9810. Targets 0.9705, 0.9635, 0.9580, 0.9520
Buy Stop 0.9830. Stop-Loss 0.9780. Targets 0.9910, 0.9950, 1.0000

USD/CHF: between the levels 0.9820 and 0.9760. Technical analysis for 30.08.2016
Near the resistance level 0.9820

USD/CHF: between the levels 0.9820 and 0.9760. Technical analysis for 30.08.2016
In the range between the levels 0.9760, 0.9820