2016-09-09 13:18:39

Review and dynamics
Yesterday’s decision of the ECB not to change its monetary policy in Eurozone has a negative impact on the prices of the commodity currencies including the Australian dollar. The pair AUD/USD is going down. The decline increases at the end of the trading week due to the profit taking in the short USD positions. The pair AUD/USD remains in the two opposite channels – these are the downtrend on the weekly chart and the uptrend on the daily chart.

Our opinion
Support levels are 0.7600 and 0.7595 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart). If these levels are broken down, next support level will be at 0.7575 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart). On the 4 hour, daily, weekly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals to open short positions.

In case of breakdown of the support level of 0.7575, the pair AUD/USD may continue to go to the levels of 0.7520 (the lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart) and 0.7475 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the daily chart) and 0.7445 (Fibonacci 23.6% to the decline since July 2014). If the negative trend continues, the pair AUD/USD can decline to the levels of 0.7325 and 0.7140 (the lows of May).

As an alternative scenario the pair may go up in the ascending channel on the daily chart in case of breakdown of the resistance level of 0.7750 (highs of August). After that the pair AUD/USD may continue to grow to the levels of 0.7820 (Fibonacci 38.2%, highs of April), 0.7900 and 0.8000 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart).

However, short positions are more preferable.

Support levels: 0.7575, 0.7520, 0.7500, 0.7475, 0.7445, 0.7325, 0.7290, 0.7200 and 0.7140.
Resistance levels: 0.7685, 0.7720, 0.7750, 0.7800, 0.7820, 0.7900 and 0.8000.

Trading tips

Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 0.7650. Take-Profit: 0.7575, 0.7520, 0.7500, 0.7475, 0.7445 and 0.7325.
Buy Stop: 0.7660. Stop-Loss: 0.7610. Take-Profit: 0.7685, 0.7720, 0.7750, 0.7800, 0.7820 and 0.7900.

In the descending channel
In the descending channel

To the nearest support level of 0.7575
To the nearest support level of 0.7575