2016-09-09 13:25:31

The data presented by the the Federal statistical office of Germany showed the reduction of positive balance of foreign trade balance of the country. Taking into account seasonal fluctuations foreign trade balance of the country has dropped to 19.4 billion Euros in July against 21.4 billion in June. German exports fell by 2.6% compared to the previous month and by 10% compared to the same period last year. The positive balance of the current account balance of Germany in July amounted to 18.6 billion Euros against 26.3 billion in June and to 25.4 billion Euros last July.

Industrial production, which is the essential part of the economy of Eurozone, is also the main part of German exports. The reduction of exports by 2.6% in July (the first month after the UK Brexit referendum) has increased gloomy forecast of slowdown of the European economy.

Data released by Eurostat earlier this week also shows the decrease in spending by the households and government. Growth of European GDP in Q2 was 0.3% (+1.6% on annual terms). GDP growth in Eurozone in Q1 was revised to 0.5% from 0.6%. Therefore, economic growth in the first 6 months of this year was slower than previously reported. The data of the European Commission released last week showed reduction of confidence of the companies and households in the Eurozone in August. The Central Bank fails to achieve inflation target level for more than three years.

Despite weak European macro-economic statistics and the threat of deflation in Europe, the ECB has left monetary policy unchanged on Thursday. Later, ECB President Mario Draghi did not speak about new incentive measures for the first time in two years. There were no any indications that such measures are going to be introduced.

The Euro had grown decision, prior to the outcome of the ECB meeting and then began to decline sharply during Mario Draghi’s speech. European stock indices and government bonds also fell after the speech by M. Draghi.

With the opening of today's trading day and during the European session, the USD has been growing in the foreign exchange market against the major currencies. The price of gold and oil is also decreasing despite the data from the US Department of Energy released yesterday on the strong reduction of oil reserves in the United States (-14.513 million barrels).

Today at 11:30 (GMT+3) the British data on foreign trade balance for July and the forecast for consumer price inflation will become known. The decrease of the forecast will have a negative impact on the Pound, and Vice versa. At the time of publication of the data volatility is expected to increase in the pound and the index of the London stock exchange FTSE100. The Euro in the cross-pair EUR/GBP can be also affected.

Today at 14:45 GMT+3) the speech by Boston Fed President, Eric Rosengren will be released. He used to be a supporter of maintaining soft monetary policy, and then changed his point of view. It will be interesting to know what he will say after the release of the negative US macro-economic indicators and after yesterday's ECB meeting.

EUR/USD: ECB left monetary policy unchanged.  Fundamental analysis for 09/09/2016