2016-09-14 14:19:20

The release of important Australian macro-economic statistics is scheduled for tomorrow. At 04:00 (GMT + 3) Melbourne Institute report will be presented, which will show consumers inflation expectations for the next 12 months. Positive index will be a positive factor the AUD. In August the index was at the level of 3.5%, which was above the forecast.

At 04:30 Australian labor market data for August will become known. Publication of this data will increase volatility in positions with the AUD, including the pair AUD/USD.

The pair AUD/USD has been declining since the middle of last week. The decline was triggered by the inaction of the ECB, closing of the short positions on the USD and the drop in oil prices. Not many market participants expect that OPEC will be able to reach an agreement to freeze oil production at the meeting this month in Algeria

According to the forecasts of the Australian Central Bank the rate of inflation will be low in the country in the near future. Inflation indicators, such as the volume of retail sales for August and production costs in the private sector for Q2 were weak (0.0% and -5.4% respectively). The Reserve Bank of Australia has introduced monetary policy easing in May and in August, lowering the rate to a level of 1.5% from 2.0%, which has been kept unchanged since last May.

The Reserve Bank of Australia may reduce the rate again on 4 October at the next meeting of the RBA, or in November to spur economic growth if inflation remains low, which will be a negative factor for the AUD. Probability of interest rate increase in the USA on September 21 is increasing, which causes strengthening of the USD in the market.

It is highly probable that the pair AUD/USD will continue to decline, at least until the Fed meeting on 20-21 September.

AUD/USD: Australian labor market data.  Fundamental analysis of 14/09/2016