2016-09-15 12:11:34

Review and dynamics
Despite the decline in expectations of the interest rates hike in the USA, the USD has grown in the currency market today. Probability of the rate hike at the Fed meeting on September 20-21 is 15%. According to the CME, futures for the Fed rate on Wednesday showed 48% probability of the rate hike in December, compared with 55% probability the day before.

However, the decline in the US stock market and in the oil prices has triggered the rise in the USD and in the pair EUR/USD.

At the same time the Euro is also under pressure after the publication the ECB’s interest rate decision last week and the speech by ECB President Mario Draghi.

Recent European macro-economic statistics also shows that the threat of deflation in the region is increasing.

The pair EUR/USD failed to consolidate above the key resistance level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% to the decline from the highs of 2014).

In the last three months the pair EUR/USD is moving in the range of 1.1430 and 1.0975. The middle line of the range is at the level of 1.1180. A narrower range was formed in August. It is between the levels of 1.1350 and 1.1045.

On the weekly chart the pair EUR/USD remains in ascending channel with the upper limit above the resistance level of 1.1785 (Fibonacci 38.2%). On the daily chart a new ascending channel has been formed with the upper limit near the level of 1.1485.

Technical analysis
With the opening of today's trading the pair EUR/USD is declining to the key support level of 1.1180 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the daily chart, ЕМА50 on the weekly chart). Another important support level of 1.1205 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart and the lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart) is just slightly above it.

On the 4 hour, daily and weekly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for short positions.

It is expected that volatility in the financial markets will be very high today, due to the publication of important macro-economic indicators for the Eurozone and the USA.

Today at 14:00 (GMT+3) interest rate and QE program decisions by the Bank of England will be also known.

However, it is likely that despite high volatility there can be false breakouts of the levels and the pair EUR/USD will continue to trade in the uptrend near the level of 1.1180 until the two-day Fed meeting on September 20-21 in the range of 1.1180, 1.1285 and 1.1045, 1.1350.

Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 1.1280. Targets: 1.1205, 1.1180, 1.1100, 1.1045 and 1.0975.
Buy Stop: 1.1310. Stop-Loss: 1.1265. Targets: 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1485 and 1.1535.

Trading tips

Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 1.1280. Targets: 1.1205, 1.1180, 1.1100, 1.1045 and 1.0975.
Buy Stop: 1.1310. Stop-Loss: 1.1265. Targets: 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1485 and 1.1535.

Key support level is 1.1180
Key support level is 1.1180

The other support level is 1.1205
The other support level is 1.1205