2016-09-19 14:53:31

Review and dynamics
Last Friday the USD had grown in the market. However, in the pair USD/JPY the rise in the USD was not as significant as in the pair with European currencies.
The pair USD/JPY failed to consolidate above resistance level of 102.30 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the hourly and 4 hour charts).
The pair USD/JPY remains in the downward channel on the daily chart with the lower limit near the level of 97.50 below the key resistance level of 104.20 (ЕМА200 on the monthly chart).
The other nearest resistance level is 102.85 (ЕМА50 and the upper line of the descending channel on the daily chart) has not been broken down by the pair USD/JPY so far.
Since the beginning of June the pair USD/JPY is in the range of 106.50 (Fibonacci 23.6% after the decline from the level of 125.65 since June 2015), (which is crossed by line ЕМА144 on the daily chart) and 100.00 (annual lows).
The other two strong resistance levels 107.35 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) and 108.25 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) prevent the rise in the pair USD/JPY in the medium-term.

Our opinion
On the hourly, 4-hour, daily and monthly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for short positions. At the moment, the nearest target of the short position is 100.60.
In anticipation of the important events (the meetings of the US Fed and the Bank of Japan on Wednesday), trading volumes in the pair will be low and traders will not make big transactions. If the Bank of Japan and the US Fed will not change current monetary policies in their countries, the pair USD/JPY pair is likely to continue the decline.
In case of breakdown of the support level of 100.00, the pair USD/JPY may go down to the bottom channel at the level of 97.50 on the daily chart.
As an alternative scenario the pair can break out resistance level of 104.20 and go up to 106.50 (Fibonacci 23.6% after the decrease from 125.65 since June 2015) and 107.35 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
A lot will depend on the decisions of the US Fed and the Bank of Japan on Wednesday.

Support levels: 101.50, 100.60, 100.00, 99.00, 97.50 and 95.00.
Resistance levels: 102.30, 102.85, 103.50, 104.00, 104.20, 105.00, 106.50, 107.35 and 108.25.


Trading tips
Buy Stop: 103.10. Stop Loss: 102.75. Take-Profit: 103.50, 104.00, 104.20, 105.00, 106.50 and 107.35.
Sell on the market. Stop Loss 102.50. Take-Profit: 101.50, 100.60, 100.00, 99.00, 97.50 and 95.00.

In the descending channel
In the descending channel

Breakout of the level of 102.30
Breakout of the level of 102.30