2016-09-21 12:17:26

Review and dynamics
The decision of the Bank of Japan had triggered the rise in the pair USD/JPY and caused the rise in the USD at today’s Asian session. Later, during the press conference of the Bank of Japan and a speech by Haruhiko Kuroda, the pair USD/JPY began to decline. At the beginning of European session, the USD has dropped in the market and against the NZD.

The pair NZD/USD remains in ascending channel on the weekly chart and the week before last tried to break down resistance level of 0.7380 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart). The pair is above strong support levels of 0.7290 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart) and 0.7240 (Fibonacci 38.2% to the decrease in pair from the level of 0.8800, since July 2014). The upper limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart is near to the 0.7550 level (Fibonacci 50.0%).

Our opinion
Strong resistance level preventing further rise in the pair NZD/USD is the level of 0.7380 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart). In case of breakout of the resistance level of 0.7380, the pair is likely continue to rise up to the resistance level of 0.7550 (Fibonacci 50.0%), which will indicate the completion of downward correction and resumption of the upward trend (on a monthly term).

If monetary policies of the US Fed and the RBNZ will be of great difference, the pair may not go above 0.7380, or the highs of the month at the level of 0.7485.

As an alternative scenario the pair will go down and in case of breakdown of support level of 0.7240, the decline can continue to 0.7030 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart and the lower line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart). Breakout of the level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci 23.6%) may cancel the uptrend.

On 4-hour and weekly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for short positions, while the indicators on the monthly and daily charts give signals to buy.

Support levels: 0.7290, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7115, 0.7085, 0.7030, 0.6975, 0.6930, 0.6900 and 0.6860.
Resistance levels: 0.7380, 0.7420 and 0.7550.

Trading tips

Sell Stop: 0.7270. Stop-Loss: 0.7320. Take-Profit: 0.7240, 0.7115, 0.7100, 0.7085, 0.6975, 0.6900 and 0.6860.
Buy Stop: 0.7340. Stop-Loss: 0.7280. Take-Profit: 0.7380, 0.7420, 0.7500 and 0.7550.

Resistance level of 0.7380
Resistance level of 0.7380

In the ascending channel
In the ascending channel