2016-09-22 13:00:01

Review and dynamics
Yesterday's Fed decision to leave the rate unchanged caused the decline in the USD in the currency market, although this decision was expected by most market participants. At the same time, the U.S. stock indexes went up. Yesterday, the index Nasdaq100 rose by 1.1%, with the closing price at the level of 4851.0 reaching the new highs. According to futures for the interest rate, probability of the rate hike in December is around 59%.

Our opinion
On 4-hour, daily, weekly and monthly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for long positions. It seems that the uptrend will continue due to soft monetary policy in the USA. The index NQ100 remains within the ascending channel on the daily chart with the upper limit above the level of 4950.0. Earlier in August, the index reached historic highs near the level of 4835.0, which is almost by 100 points or 2% more than the highs of 2015. Yesterday, this level has been exceeded.

As an alternative scenario the price can go down below the level of 4835.0 and continue to decline to the lower line of the ascending channel to the level of 4717.0 on the daily chart.

If downtrend continues next target will be at support level of 4676.0 (Fibonacci 23.6% to the rise from the lows at the level of 4180.0 after Brexit and the lower limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 4582.0 (Fibonacci 38.2% and ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 4560.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and 4505.0 (Fibonacci 50.0%).

It is expected now that the US Fed will slow down with the introduction of monetary policy tightening, or just decided not to introduce these measures at all. US stock market has chances to maintain positive trend.

Support levels: 4835.0, 4765.0, 4717.0, 4676.0, 4582.0, 4535.0 and 4505.0.
Resistance levels: 4900.0, 4950.0 and 5000.0.

Trading tips
Sell Stop: 4830.0. Stop Loss: 4820.0 Targets: 4765.0, 4750.0, 4717.0, 4676.0 and 4560.0.
Buy on the market. Stop Loss: 4830.0. Targets: 4900.0, 4950.0 and 5000.0.

In the ascending channel
In the ascending channel

The rise continues after breakdown of the level of 4835.0
The rise continues after breakdown of the level of 4835.0