2016-09-26 15:47:14

Review and dynamics
Last Friday the pair NZD/USD broke down the lower line at the level of 0.7290 of the ascending channel on the daily chart and ЕМА144 on the weekly chart. The decline was suspended at the strong support level of 0.7240 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart and Fibonacci 38.2% against the decline in the pair from the level of 0.8800 since July 2014).

The pair NZD/USD remains in the ascending channel on the daily chart with the upper limit at the level of 0.7550 (Fibonacci 50.0%).

Our opinion
The pair NZD/USD failed to consolidate above resistance level of 0.7380 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart). Breakdown of this level at the beginning of this month proved to be false. Now the difference in the monetary policy of the Fed and RBNZ may prevent the rise in the rise in the pair above the level of 0.7380 or 0.7485, the highs of this month. In case of breakout of the support level of 0.7240, the pair may go down to the level of 0.7030 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart and the lower line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart). Breakdown of the level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci 23.6%) may change movement direction in the pair.

On the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for short positions.

As an alternative scenario the pair can rise up to the resistance level of 0.7550 (Fibonacci 50.0%) after the breakout of the resistance level of 0.7380. This fact will indicate the end of the downward correction and resumption of the upward trend.

Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7115, 0.7085, 0.7030, 0.6975, 0.6930, 0.6900 and 0.6860.
Resistance levels: 0.7290, 0.7380, 0.7420 and 0.7550.

Trading tips
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 0.7310. Take-Profit: 0.7200, 0.7115, 0.7100, 0.7085, 0.6975, 0.6900 and 0.6860.
Buy Stop: 0.7310. Stop-Loss: 0.7280. Take-Profit: 0.7380, 0.7420, 0.7500 and 0.7550.

In the ascending channel
In the ascending channel

At the strong support level of 0.7240
At the strong support level of 0.7240