Review and dynamics
In anticipation of the outcome of the meeting in Algeria, today, the price of oil is in a narrow range near the balance line at the level of 46.85 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144, ЕМА50 the hourly chart). The price has not broken out resistance level of 47.20 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), but rebounded from this level into a short-term descending channel on 4-hour chart.
Upward correction is fading out, as investors started to doubt the successful outcome of the OPEC meeting in Algeria. It is likely that this meeting will not bring any results. At the same time, supply of oil in the world is growing.
For example, last Friday’s report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes showed the increase of drilling rigs in the US last week to 418 units. At the beginning of today's European session spot price of crude oil Brent has been at the level of 46.85.
Meanwhile the price is above an important support level of 46.20 (Fibonacci 50.0% against the decline from $65.30 to the lows of 2016 at the level of 27.05 and the moving average line of ЕМА200 and ЕМА144 on the daily chart), and the rise in price continues and may reach the levels of 50.00 and 50.70.
A lot will depend on the outcome of the meeting in Algeria, oil reserves in the United States, disruptions in oil supply in some regions of the world, and the position of the USD in the currency market.
The lower line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart crosses the level 46.20. A breakout of this level may trigger the decline in oil prices.
Downward momentum will gain momentum if at the OPEC meeting on Wednesday no agreements will be made.
In this case the price downtrend may develop. The last levels preventing the fall in oil price will be support levels of 43.65, 41.70 (Fibonacci 38.2% and the lows of July/August).
As an alternative scenario the price may grow to the annual highs at the levels of 50.70 and 52.80. However this scenario will develop only if an agreement to freeze oil production will be reached at the OPEC meeting.
On the hourly, 4-hour, daily and weekly chart the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for short positions.
Support levels: 46.20, 45.00, 43.65, 41.70 and 41.00.
Resistance levels: 47.20, 47.60, 50.00, 50.70 and 51.00.
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 47.30. Take-Profit: 46.85, 46.20, 45.00, 43.65 and 41.70.
Buy Stop: 47.30. Stop-Loss: 46.90. Take-Profit: 47.60, 48.50, 50.00, 50.70 and 51.00.
Support level of 46.20
In the descending channel