2016-09-29 15:28:34

Review and dynamics
In September the pair AUD/USD has remained in a range of 0.7445 (Fibonacci 23.6% after the decline since July 2014) and 0.7730 (highs of August, September and the upper line of the descending channel on the weekly chart). The level 0.7730 is crossed by the upper limit of the narrowing of the ascending triangle. At the beginning of last week the pair AUD/USD rebounded from the important support level 0.7490 (ЕМА50 on the weekly chart, ЕМА200 on the daily chart and the lower line of the upward narrowing triangle).

Due to yesterday's rise in oil prices, the pair AUD/USD rose to the upper limit of the range, not reaching it by 40 points. Today investors place take profit orders on long positions for oil and commodity currencies, including AUD/USD.

Our opinion
It seems that the pair AUD/USD will continue to move in the range 0.7445 – 0.7730. Based on the rules of trading in the range, it is recommended to open short positions near the upper limit of the range; in our case it is the level of 0.7730, and stop orders above this limit by 20-30 points. Note also that the level of 0.7730 is crossed by the upper limit of the narrowing triangle. It is likely that the price will either rebound, or break down this limit. Therefore, the level of 0.7730 is the key level of the range this month.

On 4-hour chart the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals to sell. On the daily chart the indicators are reversing towards the short positions. Narrowing ascending triangle is an important pattern for continuation of the existing trend. Breakdown of the upper limit at the level of 0.7730 can cause further rise in the pair AUD/USD.

In case of breakout of the resistance level of 0.7820 (Fibonacci 38.2% to the decline since July 2014 and the highs of April), the AUD/USD can go up to the levels of 0.8000 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 0.8130 (Fibonacci 50.0%) and 0.8200 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).

As an alternative scenario the pair can break down support level of 0.7445 (Fibonacci 23.6%). In this case, the target will be at the levels of 0.7325, 0.7140 (lows of May).

Support levels: 0.7595, 0.7530, 0.7490, 0.7445, 0.7325, 0.7290, 0.7200 and 0.7140.
Resistance levels: 0.7730, 0.7820, 0.7900 and 0.8000.

Trading tips
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 0.7710. Take-Profit: 0.7595, 0.7530, 0.7490, 0.7445, 0.7325, 0.7290 and 0.7200.
Buy Stop: 0.7710. Stop-Loss: 0.7670. Take-Profit: 0.7730, 0.7800, 0.7820 and 0.7900.

In the narrowing triangle
In the narrowing triangle

Resistance level 0.7730 and the upper limit of the range
Resistance level 0.7730 and the upper limit of the range