2016-10-03 13:50:12

The Australian dollar has strengthened at the Asian session on Monday before the meeting of the RBA. The pair AUD/USD continued to rise at the European session. Tomorrow at 06:30 (GMT+3) interest rate decision by the RBA will become known. In August, the RBA had reduced interest rate to the record lows of 1.5% due to pressure from the weak inflation data. It is not expected that the RBA will make changes to the interest rate in October; however, the RBA continues to adhere to monetary policy easing in the country. The rise in the Australian dollar today was also supported by the positive macro-economic data of Australia and the rise in oil prices.

After the decisions adopted at the OPEC meeting in Algeria last week to reduce oil production to 32.5-33 million barrels per day against the level of 33.2 million barrels a day in August, the price of oil has grown. Now oil is traded at the level of $50.70 per barrel.

Oil and gas sector of the Australian economy is one of the main sectors along with the mining industry.

Given GDP growth in Australia in Q2, and a minor decrease in unemployment, probability of the rate cuts this year is estimated at 32%. However, if inflation data for Q3, which will be released at the end of October, will be lower than expected, the RBA may raise the rate again, as the agenda of the next meeting contains the issue the interest rate.

Commodity currencies were also supported by the improvements in the situation with the Deutsche Bank. It became known, the US Ministry of Justice intends to reduce the penalty for Deutsche Bank to $ 5.4 billion instead of $14 billion, which led to a sharp rise in the shares of the Bank.

AUD/USD: Australian dollar is growing before the RBA meeting.  Fundamental analysis for 03/10/2016