2016-10-04 15:02:10

Review and dynamics
Positive US macro-economic data caused the rise in the USD and in the pair of XAU/USD.

The pair XAU/USD is declining in the descending channel on the daily chart with the lower limit at the 1290.00 level (ЕМА144 on the daily chart). Another strong support level (ЕМА200 on daily and weekly charts) crosses the level of 1270.00.

The upper limit of the channel is currently near the level of 1340.00. At the end of September the pair XAU/USD broke down important support level 1324.00 (Fibonacci 38.2% to the decline since October 2012 and ЕМА50 on the daily chart) and the negative trend started to develop.

On the weekly chart the pair XAU/USD has broken down the lower limit of the ascending channel near the level of 1324.00. The upper limit of the channel is above the level 1495.0 (Fibonacci 61.8%).

Our opinion
On the weekly, daily and 4-hour charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give sell signals.

In case of the further decline in the pair the nearest support levels will be 1300.00, 1290.00 and 1270.00.

Consolidation of the price below the level of 1218.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%) may trigger further decrease in pair XAU/USD and resumption of the downward, which began in October 2012.

Consolidation of the price above the local resistance level of 1350.00 may cause further rise in price. Breakout of the range above the levels of 1370.00 and 1385.00 will cause further growth in gold price to $1400.00 per ounce. Gold is supported by the uncertainty in the global financial markets, adherence of some of Central Banks to the monetary easing policy.

Support levels: 1300.00, 1290.00, 1270.00, 1252.00 and 1218.00.
Resistance levels: 1324.00, 1350.00, 1370.00, 1385.00, 1400.00, 1410.00 and 1435.00.

Trading tips
Buy Stop: 1318.00. Stop-Loss: 1305.00. Targets: 1324.00, 1350.00, 1370.00, 1385.00, 1400.00 and 1410.00.
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 1318.00. Targets: 1300.00, 1290.00, 1270.00, 1252.00 and 1218.00.

In the descending channel
In the descending channel

Breakout of the level of 1324.00
Breakout of the level of 1324.00