2016-10-06 14:09:05

According to the futures for the Fed interest rate the probability of the rate hike in December has grown to 64.3% on Wednesday against 50% in the middle of last month.

Positive US macro-economic statistics released this week, have increased investors’ expectations of the rate hike in December.

Investors believe that the U.S. economy is stable, which enables to maintain positive momentum in the US stock market.

US stocks indices are supported by the rise in oil prices. Stocks of the oil companies S&P500 have grown by $1.4. Chevron has grown by 0.9%, ExxonMobil - by 0.9%. In the year 2016, shares of these companies are traded with the increase of 14% and 12% respectively.

The data from the US Department of Energy released on Wednesday, which showed that the US oil reserves have declined by 3 million barrels in the week of 24-30 September, also provided support to the oil prices.

Dow Jones Industrial Average has grown by 0.6%, S&P500 - by 0.4%, Nasdaq Composite - by 0.5%. Nasdaq100 index, which incorporates 100 largest U.S. and international nonfinancial companies listed at Nasdaq stock exchange, has grown by 0.4% yesterday with the closing price at the level of 4877.0. The indices Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq100 show the best dynamics due to the positive PMI in many sectors of the U.S. economy. Index of purchasing managers (PMI) in the manufacturing sector has grown to 51.5 in September against 49.4 in August.

The rise in the index above 50 shows the increase of activity in the crucial sector of the U.S. economy. ISM PMI in the service sector has grown to the annual highs in September (57.1 against the forecast of 53.0 and the previous level of 51.4. The number of production orders, which is an important indicator of the state of the US economy, has grown by 0.2% in August against the forecast of -0.1% and 1.4% in July.

If US macro-economic indicators will remain positive, the US stock market and stock indices will continue to rise.

Market participants are waiting for the US labor market data for September, which will be released on Friday at 15:30 (GMT+3). It is expected that new jobs will grow by 138000 – 158000; nonfarm payroll will increase by 21 000 (до 172 000) and unemployment rate will remain at the 4.9%. If the forecast proves to be correct, probability of the interest rates increase this year will increase.

Usually the increase in the interest rate has a negative impact on the stock market.

However, the rise in the American stock market is likely to continue. Such measure as the interest rate increase is not sufficient for changing the bullish trend.

According to the head of the US Fed Janet Yellen, gradual increase in the interest rate shows stability of the US economy. It seems that the US economy is strong enough to withstand the rate hike.

NQ100: American indices are going up.  Fundamental analysis of 06.10.2016