Review and dynamics
The pair USD/CAD has been going up since the beginning of September, despite the rise in oil price. So spread between the CAD and oil prices is increasing. The rise of the USD is caused by the positive US macro-economic statistics and anticipation of the interest rate increase.
At the beginning of this month the pair USD/CAD rebounded from the strong support levels of 1.3100 (Fibonacci 38.2% to the rise in the pair since the beginning of July 2014 and the level of 1.0650) and 1.3080 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the daily chart, ЕМА50 on the weekly chart). Positive dynamics of the pair continues.
On 4- hour, daily and weekly charts the pair USD/CAD is going up in the ascending channel.
On the daily chart, the indicators OsMA and Stochastic do not give clear signals, while on the weekly chart the indicators give clear signals to buy. On 4- hour chart the indicators also reversing towards the long position, indicating that the downward correction, which was caused by yesterday's rise in oil price, is nearing completion.
The upper limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart is near the level of 1.3680 (Fibonacci 23.6%). If the rise in the pair continues, it can reach the level of 1.3680, which is the medium-term target.
As an alternative scenario the pair can break down support level of 1.3100. After that the pair may continue to go down to support levels of 1.2840 and 1.2760 (the lows of August and the lower limit of the channel on the daily chart).
Further movement direction in the pair will depend on the policies of the Central Banks of the USA and Canada, macro-economic statistics and oil prices.
The pair USD/CAD remains in the ascending channel on the weekly chart. It is likely that the price will break out the local highs at the level of 1.3300 and the pair USD/CAD will continue to rise in the medium term to the level of 1.3680 (Fibonacci 23.6%).
Break down of the support level of 1.2760 nay trigger the resumption of the downtrend with the target of 1.2635 (Fibonacci of 50.0%), and annual lows of 1.2525.
Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3080, 1.2840, 1.2760, 1.2635 and 1.2525.
Resistance levels: 1.3250, 1.3300, 1.3400 and 1.3680.
Buy on the market. Stop-Loss: 1.3170. Take-Profit: 1.3250, 1.3300, 1.3400 and 1.3680.
Sell Stop: 1.3170. Stop-Loss: 1.3220. Take-Profit: 1.3100, 1.3080, 1.2840, 1.2760, 1.2635 and 1.2525.
Medium-term target is at the level of 1.3680
Rebound from the level of 1.3100