Yesterday’s behavior of the AUD was similar to the movement in the CAD. Oil and gas is an important sector of the Australian economy, which is focused on exports. Changes in the oil prices have a strong impact on the Australian dollar.
Yesterday's rapid rise in oil prices, after the comments by Russian President Vladimir Putin about full support to the international efforts towards the reduction of oil production, has caused the rise in price of the Canadian and Australian dollars. The pair AUD/USD closed yesterday's trading day at the opening level of 0.7600, despite the rise in the USD in the market.
Today, oil prices are slightly declining, and the pair AUD/USD is “catching up" with other currency pairs with the USD. At the beginning of European trading session the pair AUD/USD is traded near the level of 0.7550. Volatility in the pair has reached 70 points, which nearly corresponds to the average daily volatility of 78 points maintained in the past 3 months.
It is expected that the decline in the pair AUD/USD today will not be significant.
It is likely, that the pair AUD/USD will consolidate at the levels of 0.7545 and 0.7535 at the beginning of the American session.
Further movement in the pair will depend on the American and Australian macro-economic statistics. Today there will not be important news from the USA and Australia. However, tomorrow, volatile in the pairs with the USD, including AUD/USD will increase, since the following news will become known tomorrow:
At 02:30 (GMT+3): Westpac consumer confidence index of Australia.
At 21:00: minutes of the last FOMC meeting. The minutes can indicate future plans for the monetary policy in the USA. The minutes can also show the plans of the Fed related to the interest rate hike. According to futures for the Fed interest rates, probability of the rate hike in November is at the level of 8.3%, probability of the rate hike in December is 65.1%.
At 23:30: Report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on changes to the US oil reserves for the last week. It is expected that the reserves will decline, which may trigger the rise in oil prices and in the Australian currency.