2016-10-11 14:41:16

Review and dynamics
Since the opening of today's trading session the pair AUD/USD has been declining, continuing down trend, which started at the beginning of this month and catching up with other currency pairs with the USD. The pair has already fell by more than 50 points since the opening of the trading day (with the daily average volatility of 78 points in the past 3 months).

However, positive trend in the pair AUD/USD will continue until the price remains above the key support levels of 0.7500 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 0.7445 (Fibonacci 23.6% to the decline since July, 2014). Now the pair is at the level of 0.7550 and the lower limit of the narrowing ascending triangle. The upper limit of the triangle is near resistance level of 0.7700

Our opinion
It is worth paying attention to the range between the levels of 0.7445 (Fibonacci 23.6%) and 0.7700 (highs of August, September and the upper line of the descending channel on the weekly and daily charts and the upper limit of the triangle).

The level of 0.7700 is the key level on the monthly timeframe range, and from the point of view of the trading strategy in the range.

The narrowing ascending triangle is a pattern showing that the existing trend will continue.

Breakout of its upper limit at the level of 0.7700 can trigger further rise in the pair AUD/USD.

In case of breakout of the resistance level of 0.7820 (Fibonacci 38.2% and highs of April), the pair AUD/USD can go to the levels 0.8000 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 0.8130 (Fibonacci 50.0%) and 0.8200 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).

As an alternative scenario the pair can break down support level of 0.7445 (Fibonacci 23.6%) and continue to decline to the levels of 0.7325, 0.7140 (lows of May).

This scenario can be feasible after break down of the support levels of 0.7550 and 0.7500.

On 4- hour, daily and weekly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for short positions.

Support levels: 0.7550, 0.7500, 0.7445, 0.7325, 0.7290, 0.7200 and 0.7140.
Resistance levels: 0.7610, 0.7700, 0.7820, 0.7900 and 0.8000.

Trading tips
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 0.7590. Take-Profit: 0.7500, 0.7445, 0.7325, 0.7290, 0.7200 and 0.7140.
Buy Stop: 0.7615. Stop-Loss: 0.7580. Take-Profit: 0.7700, 0.7730, 0.7800, 0.7820 and 0.7900.

In the narrowing triangle
In the narrowing triangle

Key levels are 0.7550, 0.7500 and 0.7445.
Key levels are 0.7550, 0.7500 and 0.7445.