2016-10-13 14:40:58

Review and dynamics
The pair NZD/USD has been declining since the beginning of this month due to the rise in the USD. The pair NZD/US has failed to go above resistance level 0.7380 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).

After breaking down of the support levels of 0.7265 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart) and 0.7240 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart and Fibonacci 38.2% after the decrease in pair from the level of 0.8800 since July 2014), the pair NZD/USD went down to support level of 0.7045 (ЕМА200 ЕМА50 on the daily and on the weekly charts). The lower limit of the ascending channel on the daily and weekly charts is close to this level. Breakout of this key support level may trigger further decline to support level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci 23.6%).

Our opinion
We presume in the previous review that in case of breakdown of the support level 0.7240 the pair can continue to decline. Breakdown of the level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci 23.6%) may terminate uptrend in the pair. Our assumption was partly correct and in case of the consolidation of the price below support level of 0.7045 and further decline in the pair, our assumption will be realized completely.

On the daily and weekly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals to sell; on the monthly chart the indicators also give signals for short positions.

At the same time on 4-hour chart the indicators give signals for long position, showing probability of the short-term correction with the target of 0.7085 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).

Long positions will be advisable if the pair goes above the level of 0.7240.

Breakout of the resistance level of 0.7380 may trigger further rise in the pair in the ascending channel on the weekly chart.

However, this scenario is unlikely due to differences in the monetary policies of the RBNZ and the US Fed.

It is recommended to open sell positions when the indicators on 4-hour chart will start to give signals for short positions.

Support levels: 0.7045, 0.6975, 0.6930, 0.6900 and 0.6860.
Resistance levels: 0.7085, 0.7150, 0.7240, 0.7265, 0.7380 and 0.7485.

Trading tips
Sell Stop: 0.7030. Stop-Loss: 0.7060. Take-Profit: 0.7000, 0.6975, 0.6930, 0.6900 and 0.6860.
Buy Stop: 0.7110. Stop-Loss: 0.7075. Take-Profit: 0.7150, 0.7240, 0.7265, 0.7380 and 0.7485.

Indicators give sell signals
Indicators give sell signals

Support level is 0.7045
Support level is 0.7045