2016-10-31 15:32:44

Review and dynamics
Following mixed movement and volatility of 230 points the pair AUD/USD is at the level of 0.7610 at the end of this month and support level of ЕМА50 on the daily chart and resistance level of ЕМА200 line on 4-hour chart.

The pair AUD/USD remains on the lower line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart and above the key support level of 0.7520 (ЕМА200 and the lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).

Positive Australian macro-economic data provides support to the Australian currency.

The Australian dollar also remains one of the most stable currencies forcing investors to buy the AUD and use trading strategies "carry-trade" (interest rate in Australia is at the level of 1.5%, which is one of the highest level in the countries with the advanced economies).

Our opinion
After the attempt to break out resistance level of 0.7700 last week, the pair AUD/USD has rebounded from this level and went to support level of 0.7610 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).

Breakdown of this support level may trigger further decline in the pair AUD/USD to the level of 0.7520.

Breakdown of support level of 0.7445 (Fibonacci 23.6% after the decline since July 2014) may terminate the uptrend in the pair AUD/USD and cause the decline to support levels of 0.7325 and 0.7140 (lows of May).

On the weekly chart the pair AUD/USD remains in the ascending channel with the upper limit near the level of 0.7960 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart). In case of breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.7700, the pair may rise up to the levels of 0.7820 (Fibonacci 38.2% and highs of April), 0.7960 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 0.8130 (Fibonacci 50.0%) and 0.8200 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).

The indicators OsMA and Stochastic give mixed signals. If the monthly chart, the indicators give buy signals; on the daily and weekly charts they give signals for short positions.

The pair needs to break through the range of 0.7650 and 0.7565in order to determine movement direction. Critical levels are 0.7520 and 0.7700.

Support levels: 0.7610, 0.7520, 0.7445, 0.7325, 0.7290, 0.7200 and 0.7140.
Resistance levels: 0.7650, 0.7700, 0.7820, 0.790 and, 0.7960.

Trading tips
Sell Stop: 0.7580. Stop-Loss: 0.7620. Take-Profit: 0.7520, 0.7500 and 0.7445.
Buy Stop: 0.7630. Stop-Loss: 0.7590. Take-Profit: 0.7700, 0.7800, 0.7820, 0.7900 and 0.7960.

In the ascending channel
In the ascending channel

Support levels of 0.7610 and 0.7520.
Support levels of 0.7610 and 0.7520.