2016-11-08 11:43:55

Traders take profit and adjust positions in advance of the US presidential elections. Recent public polls showed that Hillary Clinton has a steady, but slight advantage of 3-6% over Donald Trump. However, over a few last weeks, Trump is catching up, narrowing the gap. In the few hours before the election, both candidates continue their presidential campaign. The result of the voting may surprise the markets.

Meanwhile, Chinese data showed that in October foreign trade balance has increased to 49.06 billion USD against 41.99 billion USD in September and the forecast of 51.7 billion USD. The index was below the forecast. Exports dropped by 7.3% compared to last October, after the decline by 10.0% in September. Imports fell by 1.4% in October after the decline of 9% in September.

Australian economy is export-oriented, and commodities, such as liquefied natural gas, coal and iron ore are the main export items of Australia. One of the main buyers of the Australian commodities is China, which remains the world's largest importer of commodities. The decrease in imports of the commodities to China shows slowdown in the second largest economy in the world, which has a negative impact on commodity prices and commodity currencies including the Australian dollar.

The results of Bank of Australia’s survey published at 03:30 GMT+3 showed pessimistic sentiments of the companies and deterioration of the business conditions. The index of business confidence fell to 4 in October from 6 in September, business conditions index fell to 6 in October from 8 in September. Sub-indices, indicating employment rate, orders and inventory levels have also decreased in the reporting period.

Today market attention will be focused on the results of the presidential elections in the United States. The first results will be published on Wednesday 9 November.
If Clinton wins it is expected that investors’ risk appetite will increase, as well as the price of the USD and the US stock market.

AUD/USD