At the end of last week the USD sharply went up, as well as the US stock market due to the victory of Donald Trump in the presidential election in the United States.
Investors began to withdraw funds from safe-haven assets, such as the Yen, precious metals and government bonds. Shares of the industrial companies and banks have significantly increased last week. Within a week the index DJIA has grown by 5.4%, which was the highest result since December 2011. The indexes S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite have grown by 3.8%. Sub-index of the industrial companies incorporated in the index S&P500 has increased by 8%; sub-index of the financial sector has grown by 11%. Last Friday the price of gold fell to the 5-week lows and closed trading at COMEX with the decline of 3.3% at the level of $1224.30 per Troy ounce, which is the lowest closing level since June 3.
According to the futures for the Fed rate, probability of the monetary policy tightening in December is at 81.1%.
Macro-economic statistics and important news of this week are as follows:
13:00 (GMT+3) – Industrial production output in Eurozone in September.
18:00 – Speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi. As a rule, volatility in the financial markets increases during his speeches. Investors shall be extremely careful when trading in the currency market.
00:45 – Retail sales in New Zealand in Q3.
03:30 – Minutes of the last meeting of the RBA, which is issued two weeks after the meeting. If the RBA shows “hawkish” attitude to the inflation forecast, which is regarded by the markets as a probability of the rate hike, the AUD will go up.
10:00 – German GDP in Q3. GDP is a general indicator of economic state of the country. German economy is a driving force of the entire economy of Eurozone. The rise in German GDP is a positive factor for the EUR, and Vice versa. It is expected that GDP will grow by 1.8% on annual basis and by +0.3% on monthly basis. If GDP turns out to be weaker than expected, it will put pressure on the Euro.
11:30 – French GDP for Q3.
12:00 – Italians GDP for Q3
12:30 – British consumer price index in October. Consumer price index is the key indicator of inflation, and an important indicator, which helps the Bank of England determine future monetary policy in the country. It is expected that GDP will grow by 1.1%, which will have a positive impact on the pound, and Vice versa.
13:00 – ZEW index of business sentiment in Germany for November.
13:00 – Trade balance of Eurozone in September; European GDP in Q3 (it is expected that GDP will grow by 1.6% on annual basis and by 0.3% on quarterly basis). Macro-economic data of Eurozone and Germany indicates that there is a threat of deflation in Eurozone. If the data is worse than the forecast, the Euro will go down in the currency market.
16:30 – US inflation indicators for October, including retail sales data, the index of export/import prices. Retail sales show the level of consumer spending in the United States, and changes to sale volume in the retail trade sector. The forecast is +0.6%.
After 17:00 – Price index of the dairy products of New Zealand, which usually causes the rise in volatility in the NZD. The auction, which took place two weeks ago, showed that the world prices for dairy products have grown.
Global Dairy Trade price index for dairy products was at the level of +11.4%. Milk powder is the main item of the country's exports. The decline in prices will put pressure on the NZD, and Vice versa.
00:30 – Report on the changes to oil reserves in the USA by the American petroleum Institute (API) for the last week.
13:00 – ZEW economic expectations index in Switzerland in November.
17:15 – US industrial production and capacity utilization for October.
18:30 – Changes to the oil and petroleum products inventories in the USA for the last week from the US Department of Energy.
23:00 – report on financial stability by the RBNZ. The report may cause the rise in volatility in the NZD.
12:30 – Report on the retail sales in the UK in October by the Office for National Statistics.
13:00 – Consumer price index in Eurozone for October. Consumer price index is the key indicator of inflation rate. It affects monetary policy decisions of the ECB. According to the forecast the index will grow by 0.3% (+0.5% in annual basis). If the forecast is not correct, volatility in the Euro and European stock indexes will increase.
15:30 – information about the meeting of the ECB devoted to the monetary policy and review on changes to financial and economic policy.
16:30 – Construction of homes in the U.S. in October, weekly data of the U.S. Department of Labor on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. Previous number of applications was 254 000 and the forecast is 259 000.
16:30 – important macro-economic indicators in the United States, including consumer price index for October, index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from Philadelphia Fed in November.
18:00 – A speech of the Fed Governor Janet Yellen. If Janet Yellen’s speech indicates probability of the interest rate hike until the end of the year, the USD will sharply grow in the currency market.
10:00 – German producer price index for October.
11:00 – A speech by the Governor of the ECB, Mario Draghi.
18:00 – US leading indicators indices for October.
21:00 – report on the active drilling rigs by the US oilfield services company Baker Hughes. This index is an important indicator of activity in the US oil sector. This index has a significant impact on the oil prices. Currently, the number of active rigs is 452.