2016-11-15 11:09:09

After the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election last week, the USD has sharply grown in the foreign exchange market. Investors withdrew funds from the safe -havens assets and sold government bonds. The yield on the US 10-year bonds on Monday, has reached 2.3%, which is the highest level since 30 December. This rise was caused by expectations of the expansion of the budget expenditures by Trump’s administration. On the day before election the yield of the bonds was 1.9%.

The index ICE, which compares the value of the USD with a basket of six currencies, has reached the highs since last November.

The US economy is steadily developing, and the anxiety about the presidential election is in the past. Stronger economic growth in the United States could increase inflation and prompt the Fed to introduce monetary policy tightening sooner. Expectations of the expansion of the budget expenditures also increase probability of the rate hike at the Fed meeting in December.

At the Asian session, the USD has declined against the Japanese Yen and the Euro amid profit taking orders caused by the recent rise in the USD up to the annual highs.

At the beginning of the European session, the pair EUR/USD continues to rise. Investors await the data on the European GDP for Q3. According to the forecast GDP will grow by 1.6% on annual basis and by 0.3% on quarterly basis. Recent macro-economic data shows that Eurozone faces a threat of deflation. If GDP will be below the forecast, the Euro will fall in the currency market.

Today, important British and American macro-economic data will become known.

At 12:30 (GMT+3) - British consumer price index for October.

At 16:30 American inflation indicators for October, including retail sales data and price index of export/import. Retail sales show the level of consumer spending in the United States, and changes to sale volume in the retail trade sector. The forecast is +0.6%.

If October data on the US retail sales disappoints investors, the USD may go down. In this case, the pair EUR/USD may continue to rise.

However, meanwhile the rise is likely upward correction after the decline in the pair caused by the rapid rise in the USD.EUR/USD: investors place take-profit orders on the USD.  Fundamental analysis for 15/11/2016