2016-11-15 13:44:30

Review and dynamics
Victory of Donald Trump at the presidential election in the USA caused sharp rise in the USD and decline in the commodity prices. Earlier this month the price of crude oil Brent has broken down strong support levels of 47.15 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and 46.20 (Fibonacci 50.0% after the decline from $65.30 to the lows of 2016 at the level of 27.00) and reached the new local lows at the level of $43.60 per barrel.

Our opinion
Oil market is pessimistic about successful outcome of the OPEC agreement to reduce oil production. Pessimism is also increasing because of the victory of Donald Trump in the United States. Problem of the excess supply of oil in the world remains.

Breakdown of the level of 43.60 may cause a new wave of decline in the oil prices. In this case the next target will be at the level of 41.70 (Fibonacci 38.2% and the lows of July/August).

As an alternative scenario the price will return above the level of 47.15 and continue to rise to the levels of 50.00 and 50.70 (Fibonacci 61.8%).

On daily, weekly and monthly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for short positions.

Short positions are still preferable, despite the current upward corrective in the price of crude oil Brent.

Support levels: 44.30, 43.65, 41.70 and 41.00.
Resistance levels: 46.20, 47.15, 50.00, 50.70 and 51.10.

Trading tips
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 46.10. Take-Profit: 45.00, 44.00, 43.65, 41.70 and 41.00.
Buy Stop: 47.20. Stop-Loss: 46.70. Take-Profit: 47.45, 48.00, 50.00, 50.70, 51.10, 53.00 and 53.70.

Breakdown of the level of 46.20
Breakdown of the level of 46.20

In the descending channel
In the descending channel