Last week the USD has declined in the foreign exchange market after almost three week growth caused by the victory of Donald Trump in the presidential election.
Expectations that President-elect Donald Trump would stimulate the US economy introducing tax cuts and increasing public expenditures, have led to the large-scale rise in the USD. Investors bought the American currency and the shares of the major banks, medical, technological, biotechnological and industrial companies.
Last week investors started to take profit in the long positions with the USD.
Expectations of the interest rate hike in the USA in December have probably been incorporated into the price, and the USD is undergoing downward correction in the foreign exchange market. Some rest is required before the further growth in the USD.
Macro-economic statistics and important news of this week are as follows:
17:00 (GMT+3) – a speech by Mario Draghi, ECB President. Usually his speeches after the meetings cause the rise of volatility in the financial markets. It is necessary to be extremely careful in the currency market, particularly in trading Euro and the European indices.
18:30 – Fed Dallas index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for November.
02:00 – a speech of Stephen Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada.
02:30 – important macro-economic statistics of Japan, indicating economic growth: retail sales for October, unemployment rate in October (forecast: 3.0%), household expenditures, which as an indicator of consumers’ optimism (forecast: -0.6%). It is expected that volatility will be sharp increase in the yen and Japanese stock markets.
10:45 – GDP in France for Q3 (final).
12:30 – British consumer lending and approved mortgage applications in October.
13:00 – speech of the head of the RBNZ.
16:00 – consumer price index (CPI) in Germany in November. This index has a strong influence on the Euro, as German economy is of great importance in the Eurozone. CPI is the key indicator of inflation and changes in the purchasing trends in Germany.
16:30 – US GDP in Q3, annual US GDP in Q3. GDP is the key index, affecting monetary policy in the country, along with labor market and inflation data. The forecast is +3.0%.
16:30 – balance of payments in Canada in Q3.
17:00 – Housing price index in the USA for September.
18:00 – Consumer confidence index in the USA for November. Forecast is 100.0%.
23:00 – Financial stability report by the RBNZ.
00:30 – Report on changes in the US oil stocks for last week.
02:50 – Industrial production in Japan in October.
03:00 – sales of new home in Australia in November.
03:01 – Gfk consumer confidence index in the UK in November.
10:00 – UBS consumer consumption index in Switzerland for October. The indicator incorporates five components: sales of new cars, activity in the retail sector, the number of nights booked in hotels of Switzerland, consumer confidence and the volume of transactions carried out by credit cards.
11:00 – KOF leading indicator index in Switzerland for November.
11:55 – Unemployment rate in Germany in November.
13:00 – Preliminary consumer price index (CPI) in Eurozone in November. CPI is the key indicator of inflation, having a strong impact on the price of the Euro.
13:30 – Financial stability report of the Bank of England.
15:30 – A speech by Mario Draghi, ECB President.
16:15 – ADP unemployment rate in the United States in November. Usually, this data has a strong impact on the market and the price of the USD; however, there is no direct correlation with Non-Farm Payrolls. Is expected that the index will increase by 13.000 employees in the private sector of the USA (up to 160 000 against to 147 000 in October).
16:30 – US personal income/expenses for November.
16:30 – Canadian GDP for September, annual GDP in Q3 (forecast is +3.4%).
17:45 – Chicago PMI, which estimates economic activity in the States of Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. A result above 50 is positive for the USD (forecast is 51.8).
18:00 – Pending home sales in the USA in October.
18:30 – US Department of Energy will issue a weekly report on stocks of oil and oil products in USA.
22:00 – US "Beige book".
01:30 – AiG index of activity in the manufacturing sector of Australia for November.
04:00, 04:45 – index of business activity in the manufacturing and service sector of China for November. Chinese economy is the second largest in the world after the US. Therefore, Chinese macro-economic statistics have a significant impact on the global financial markets, the Chinese currency and other Asian currencies, the USD and commodity currencies, as well as on the Chinese and Asian stock indexes.
11:15 – volume of retail trade in Switzerland in October.
11:30 – 11:55 – Markit indices of business activity for November in the manufacturing sectors of Italy, France and Germany.
12:00 – Markit index of business activity for November in the manufacturing sector of Eurozone.
12:30 – Markit index of business activity for November in the British manufacturing sector.
13:00 – Italian GDP for Q3.
13:00 – Unemployment rate in Eurozone for October (forecast is 10%).
16:30 – Initial applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. for the last week. Previous number was at the level of 251 000.
17:45 – Markit index of business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector for November.
18:00 – ISM PMI in the US manufacturing sector PMI for November; index of inflation acceleration in the USA and construction spending in USA for October.
03:30 – Retail sales in Australia in October.
09:45 – Swiss GDP for Q3.
13:00 – producer price index of Eurozone in October. The forecast is +0.3% and -1.0% on the annual basis.
16:30 – key monthly data on the US labor market for November, including the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (Non-Farm PayRolls). The forecast is 174 000, which is by 13 000 more than in October, as well as unemployment rate in the USA and average hourly earnings.
16:30 – Monthly labor market data in Canada for November.
21:00 – Report on the active drilling rigs by the US oilfield services company Baker Hughes. This index is an important indicator of activity in the US oil sector. This index has a significant impact on the oil prices.
Currently, the number of active rigs is 474.
Investors will wait for the US data, which will be released on Friday, as this will be the last statistics before the Fed's meeting on 13-14 December. Based on this data the Fed will make its monetary policy decisions.