2016-11-28 14:03:06

Review and dynamics
Today the USD has been declining in the market after nearly three week growth.

The pair USD/CAD remains in the ascending channel on the daily chart above the strong support levels of 1.3165 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.3100 (Fibonacci 38.2% after the rise since the beginning of July 2014 at the level of 1.0650). The lower limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart is near the level of 1.3100. The upper limit of the channel is near the level of 1.3680 (Fibonacci 23.6%).

Our opinion
On weekly and daily charts the upper limits of the ascending channels are near the level of 1.3680.

If the price breaks out this level and continues to rise, downward correction may terminate and the pair will resume uptrend.

As an alternative scenario the pair may break down support level of 1.3100 and continue to move to support levels of 1.2840 and 1.2760 (lows of August).

Breakdown of the support level of 1.2760 can trigger further decline with the targets of 1.2635 (Fibonacci 50.0%) and 1.2525 (annual lows).

Further movement direction in the pair USD/CAD will depend on the policies of the Central Banks in the USA and Canada.

Recall that OPEC meeting devoted to the oil production restrictions will be held on November 30. In case the agreement is not reached again, oil prices will go down causing sharp rise in USD/CAD. If the agreement is signed, oil price will go up above $50 per barrel, while the pair USD/CAD will go down to support level of 1.3385 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart) or down to 1.3165 and 1.3100.

Support levels: 1.3385, 1.3200, 1.3165, 1.3100, 1.3085, 1.2840, 1.2760 and 1.2635.
Resistance levels: 1.3555 and 1.3680.

Trading tips
Buy Stop: 1.3540. Stop-Loss: 1.3480. Take-Profit: 1.3600 and 1.3680.
Sell Stop: 1.3440. Stop-Loss: 1.3490. Take-Profit: 1.3385, 1.3200, 1.3165 and 1.3100.

Upper limit of the channel is near the level of 1.3680
Upper limit of the channel is near the level of 1.3680

In the ascending channel
In the ascending channel