2016-11-30 10:43:04

Review and dynamics
Victory of Donald Trump in the presidential election in the United States caused large-scale rise in the USD and sharp decline in the commodity prices. This month the price of crude oil Brent had broken down strong support levels of 47.25 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 46.20 (Fibonacci 50.0% after the decline from $ 65.30 to the lows of 2016 at the level of 27.00) and reached the new local lows at the level of $43.60 per barrel. However, today, the price of Brent has grown above the level of 47.25.

Our opinion
The rise in the USD and excess of oil supply in the world prevents the rise in oil prices. If OPEC countries do not reach agreement at the meeting, oil prices will go down. Breakdown of the level of 46.20 will trigger further decline in the descending channel on the daily chart with the targets of 43.60 and 41.70 (Fibonacci 38.2%). Breakdown of the level 41.70 (Fibonacci 38.2% and lows of July/August) can create a new wave of decline in oil prices.

In case of reaching agreement at the meeting in Vienna, the price of oil will rise sharply.

It may breakout resistance level of 48.20 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) and continue to rise up to strong resistance levels of 50.00 (psychological level), 50.70 (Fibonacci 61.8% after the decline from $65.30 to lows of 2016 at 27.00) and 51.10 (highs of August).

It is unlikely that the price can rise above these levels, due to the strong USD and the policy of the US President Donald Trump, aimed at lifting restrictions on energy production in the United States.

The indicators OsMA and Stochastic give mixed signals.

Key level in this situation is 47.25 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

Support levels: 47.25, 46.20, 44.30, 43.65, 41.70 and 41.00.
Resistance levels: 48.20, 50.00, 50.70 and 51.10.

Trading tips
Sell Stop: 46.90. Stop-Loss: 47.90. Take-Profit: 46.20, 44.30, 43.65, 41.70 and 41.00.
Buy Stop: 48.50. Stop-Loss: 47.20. Take-Profit: 50.00, 50.70 and 51.10.

Key level of 47.25
Key level of 47.25

At resistance level of 48.00
At resistance level of 48.00