2016-12-01 10:57:51

Amid sharp rise in the USD after the decision of the major oil producers to cut oil output, the pair NZD/USD sharply went down. Agreement of the OPEC countries has been reached for the first time since 2008. Oil production will be reduced to 1.2 million barrels a day. Market participant believe that the rise in oil prices support the USD. Yesterday positive Us statistics was released, which also supported the USD. Reports of ADP and Chicago PMI were better than expected. Personal expenditures in the USA have also grown by 0.6% against the forecast of 0.4%.

At the same time, New Zealand’ statistics released on Thursday was weak. Sales have dropped by 1.8% in Q3 against Q2 According to New Zealand’s statistics agency, sales have been deteriorating in four out of five quarters. Export prices have dropped by 2.8% in Q3 mainly because of the decline in the prices of diary and meat.

The USD starts new month on the negative territory. It is likely that the increase in the interest rate has been incorporated into the price of the USD Now market participants are waiting for the data on the US labor market, including Non-Farm PayRolls. The forecast is 175 000, which is by 14 000 more than in October. As well as unemployment rate and average hourly wages.

President of the Federal Reserve Bank said on Wednesday that the rise in the interest rate would be a reasonable measure providing economic growth. If appropriate measures are not taken soon, the risks for the macro-economic and financial stability would increase.

Today, the USD is undergoing downward correction. Positive Chinese news released today support currencies of the Asian region including the NZD. China is the largest economic partner of New Zealand and a purchaser of the raw materials including agricultural products.

However prospect for the NZD in 2017 are negative. Narrowing gap between the interest rates of the USA and New Zealand, slowdown of the Chinese economy and uncertainty of the commodity prices can cause decline in the pair NZD/USD in the near future and in 2017. Meanwhile the rise in price of the milk powder, and other dairy products has a positive impact on the NZD.NZD/USD: USD has grown amid OPEC’s decision to cut oil output. Fundamental analysis for 01/12/2016