The Australian dollar against the US one moved to the consolidation stage after a significant fall in late April-early May. Now, the instrument is in the range of 0.7610-0.7450.
The trading is quiet in view of the lack of key releases in Australia and the US, as well as a decline in demand for the overbought USD. In the second half of the week, the trading fluctuations do not exceed 50 points awaiting the key releases from the US.
Today, the main catalyst will be the US data on the change in the number of Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Support and resistance
The growth of Nonfarm Payrolls for May is expected to 189K. Such an increase may indicate an acceleration in the US economic growth in Q2, which will definitely give significant support to USD. On the other hand, these forecasts are already included in the price and, if the growth of the indicator is less significant than last month, the USD may fall. Technically, one can see the preservation of a downtrend in the medium term. In this situation, the downward movement is more likely: a fall to a local minimum is expected, after which the testing of new lows at 0.7330, 0.7250. In the breakout of 0.7610 on macroeconomic data, a longer upward correction to strong resistance levels of 0.7650, 0.7700 may be formed.
Technical indicators confirm the main fall outlook: on W1, MACD indicates the preservation of the high volume of short positions, Bollinger Bands are pointing downwards.
Support levels: 0.7505, 0.7480, 0.7450, 0.7410, 0.7370, 0.7250.
Resistance levels: 0.7560, 0.7610, 0.7650, 0.7700, 0.7800.
In this situation, short positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 0.7250, 0.7330 and stop-loss at 0.7650.
Australian vs US Dollar
|Take Profit||0.7250, 0.7330|
|Support levels||0.7250, 0.7370, 0.7410, 0.7450, 0.7480, 0.7505, 0.7560, 0.7610, 0.7650, 0.7700, 0.7800|
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