Current trend

The Australian dollar against the US one moved to the consolidation stage after a significant fall in late April-early May. Now, the instrument is in the range of 0.7610-0.7450.

The trading is quiet in view of the lack of key releases in Australia and the US, as well as a decline in demand for the overbought USD. In the second half of the week, the trading fluctuations do not exceed 50 points awaiting the key releases from the US.

Today, the main catalyst will be the US data on the change in the number of Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate.

Support and resistance

The growth of Nonfarm Payrolls for May is expected to 189K. Such an increase may indicate an acceleration in the US economic growth in Q2, which will definitely give significant support to USD. On the other hand, these forecasts are already included in the price and, if the growth of the indicator is less significant than last month, the USD may fall. Technically, one can see the preservation of a downtrend in the medium term. In this situation, the downward movement is more likely: a fall to a local minimum is expected, after which the testing of new lows at 0.7330, 0.7250. In the breakout of 0.7610 on macroeconomic data, a longer upward correction to strong resistance levels of 0.7650, 0.7700 may be formed.

Technical indicators confirm the main fall outlook: on W1, MACD indicates the preservation of the high volume of short positions, Bollinger Bands are pointing downwards.

Support levels: 0.7505, 0.7480, 0.7450, 0.7410, 0.7370, 0.7250.

Resistance levels: 0.7560, 0.7610, 0.7650, 0.7700, 0.7800.

Trading tips

In this situation, short positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 0.7250, 0.7330 and stop-loss at 0.7650.

Australian vs US Dollar

BuySellSpread
0.72630.7260723

Scenario

TimeframeWeekly
RecommendationsSELL
Entry Point0.7540
Take Profit0.7250, 0.7330
Stop Loss0.7650
Support levels0.7250, 0.7370, 0.7410, 0.7450, 0.7480, 0.7505, 0.7560, 0.7610, 0.7650, 0.7700, 0.7800
AUD/USD: resumption of a downtrend

The material published on this page is produced by the Claws&Horns Company and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC; furthermore it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

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