At the end of June, the NZD/USD pair broke through the key support level of 0.6850 and lost more than 100 points. The main factor of the fall is the loss of investment attractiveness of NZD and not the growth of USD. This is clearly seen in the example of the previous trading week, when, after the news from the US, most of the main rates were corrected upwards, as NZD continued to fall.
Further, the US currency will strengthen due to the next Fed’s tightening of monetary policy and raise the rates. The employment market has stabilized against the same period last year, inflation reached the target value last year, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.2% for the last three months, and the high demand for labor increases earnings – the economic growth is accelerating. In 2018, it is worth waiting for changes in US monetary policy and an increase in the investment attractiveness of USD.
Key US fundamental data will be released at the end of the week: Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Payrolls.
Support and resistance
Technical indicators confirm the forecast of the fall: MACD short positions’ volumes are growing; Bollinger bands are directed downwards.
Resistance levels: 0.6750, 0.6770, 0.6820, 0.6850, 0.6920, 0.6970, 0.7050.
Support levels: 0.6735, 0.6720, 0.6680, 0.6655, 0.6600, 0.6575.
It is relevant to increase the volume of short positions from the current level with the targets at 0.6655, 0.6575 and stop loss 0.6755.
New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar
|Support levels||0.6575, 0.6600, 0.6655, 0.6680, 0.6720, 0.6735, 0.6750, 0.6770, 0.6820, 0.6850, 0.6920, 0.6970, 0.7050|
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