The pair EUR/USD started the day with a slight increase and currently is trading around 1.1660. There is a technical rebound after a significant strengthening of USD on Thursday. USD is supported by comments of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who noted the stable growth of the US economy and did not attach importance to the US-China trade war. Nevertheless, the official expressed concern about the rapid growth of public debt exceeding the growth of the economy. Investors expect two more rate hikes this year. The meeting of European Commission Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker and President Trump is due next week. If Juncker fails to agree on the cancellation of Washington's introduction of 20% duties on European cars, the EU can impose a mirror duty on a number of American goods, which will lead to a new round of trade war, this time between the EU and the US.


The GBP/USD pair shows flat dynamics in the morning and is trading around 1.3025. The rate has stabilized after a significant decline of recent days. On Thursday, GBP stays under pressure of negative statistics on retail sales. In June, the indicator fell from 4.1% to 2.9% YoY and from 1.4% to –0.5% MoM. The latest series of weak data on wages, inflation and retail sales in the UK could put pressure on the Bank of England and force officials to abandon the interest rate increase at a meeting of the regulator in August. Public Sector Net Borrowing data is due today. The figure in June may slightly increase from 3.356B to 3.600B pounds.


The AUD/USD pair is trying to grow today, winning back yesterday's losses, and is currently trading at the level of 0.7360. Published on Thursday, data from the Australian labor market as a whole turned out to be positive. In June, the Unemployment Rate remained at 5.4%, and the Employment Rate rose sharply from 13.4K to 50.9K. However, AUD is under long-time pressure of a fear of the escalation of the US-China trade war. At the end of August, increased duties on Chinese goods totaling USD 200 billion should come into force, and new negotiations on the settlement of the conflict have not yet begun. In addition, USD is supported by investors' confidence that the Fed will continue raising rates.


Quotes of USD/JPY are going down. The yen is strengthening, despite mixed data on inflation in Japan. National Consumer Price Index in June remained at 0.7% YoY with the forecast of growth to 0.8%. National CPI Ex-Fresh Food increased from 0.7% to 0.8%. JPY is supported by All Industry Activity Index which exceeded the expectations and amounted 0.1%.


Quotes of gold have mixed dynamics. The decrease to the area of 1215.40 is currently practically won back. Investors are waiting for news on the development of trade conflicts between the US and other countries.

Morning Market Review

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