The pair EUR/USD fell slightly during the Asian session, reaching 1.1700, and may go further down during the day. Investors are waiting for the publication of data on GDP and inflation in the euro area. It is expected that under the pressure of international trade conflicts, European GDP in Q2 2018 may decrease from 2.5% to 2.2%, which may be the lowest level since the beginning of last year. The Consumer Price Index may remain at 2.0%, and the Core Consumer Price Index may rise from 0.9% to 1.0%, but it will remain far from the target level of 2.0%.
The pair GBP/USD corrected to 1.3120, where it is now traded. The focus remains on the upcoming meeting of the Bank of England and the situation around Brexit. As it became known to the British media, the government considers the withdrawal from the EU without a deal more realistic and prepares a number of documents with recommendations for this case scenario for various industries and the population. It is expected that they will be published in August or September. The Times even wrote that the army could be involved in order to help the population in case of a negative scenario of Brexit, but the British authorities deny this information. In general, the situation remains negative for the pound.
The AUD/USD pair rose to 0.7430 during the Asian session. AUD was supported by the positive statistics from the construction market. New home sales increased by 2.2% in June for the first time since last December, although the indicator did not reach the forecast of 4.5%. The number of building permits, contrary to forecasts, also increased significantly: by 1.6% YoY and by 6.4% MoM. However, the strengthening of AUD may be brief, as the trade war between the US and China continues to have a negative impact on the Australian economy.
Quotations of the pair USD/JPY during the Asian session were traded very active due to a large number of significant economic releases. The price was in the range of 110.73–111.40. Industrial production statistics was negative in June. The indicator decreased by 1.2% YoY instead of expected growth. MoM the indicator has been decreasing for two months in a row, this time by 2.1%. Unemployment Rate grew from 2.2% to 2.4% in June. Later, the meeting of the Bank of Japan ended, after which the regulator left the interest rate at the previous level of –0.1%, and did not make any changes to the monetary policy. BoJ outlook report stated that the rate remains at a low level, as achieving a target level inflation would take a long time. The forecast for GDP growth this year is 1.5%, and for the growth of core inflation it is 1.1%
Quotes of gold were traded within the range of 1222.40–1220.00 in the morning. Investors are waiting for Wednesday, when the next meeting of the Fed with a decision on the interest rate is due.
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