Current trend

On Tuesday, USD strengthened against EUR due to mixed statistics.

Preliminary data on the EU's GDP in Q2 2018 were weaker than expected. The indicator fell from 2.5% to 2.1%, which is the weakest result since the beginning of last year. However, these data were ignored by the market due to strong inflation statistics. The Consumer Price Index rose above the target level and amounted to 2.1% for the first time since 2012. Also, EUR was supported by positive July data on retail sales in Germany. YoY, the indicator grew from 1.6% to 3.0%, and MoM it grew from –2.1% to 1.2%.

On Wednesday, July data on EU Manufacturing PMI are expected. However, according to forecasts, the indicator will remain at the same level of 55.1 points.

US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure — Price Index rose by 1.9%, (0.1% worse than expected). Personal Spending and Income grew by 0.4%, as predicted.

The main Wednesday’s event will be the decision on the interest rate and subsequent comments on monetary policy. On Wednesday, in addition to the Fed meeting, July data on ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected. It is expected that the index will decrease from 60.2 to 59.8 points, but it will remain well above the 50-point boundary.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument was corrected to the midline of Bollinger bands. MACD is in the positive area, the signal line crosses the zero line and the body of the histogram upwards, forming a buy signal.

Support levels: 1.1671, 1.1655, 1.1642, 1.1619, 1.1600, 1.1574.

Resistance levels: 1.1681, 1.1705, 1.1719, 1.1731, 1.1750, 1.1763, 1.1789.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.1620 and stop loss 1.1720. Implementation period: 1–3 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1750 with the target of 1.1800 and the stop loss 1.1720. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

Euro vs US Dollar

BuySellSpread
1.137051.1368223

Scenario

TimeframeWeekly
RecommendationsSELL
Entry Point1.1685
Take Profit1.1620
Stop Loss1.1720
Support levels1.1574, 1.1600, 1.1619, 1.1642, 1.1655, 1.1671, 1.1681, 1.1705, 1.1719, 1.1731, 1.1750, 1.1763, 1.1789

Alternative scenario

RecommendationsBUY STOP
Entry Point1.1750
Take Profit1.1800
Stop Loss1.1720
Support levels1.1574, 1.1600, 1.1619, 1.1642, 1.1655, 1.1671, 1.1681, 1.1705, 1.1719, 1.1731, 1.1750, 1.1763, 1.1789
EUR/USD: general analysis

The material published on this page is produced by the Claws&Horns Company and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC; furthermore it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

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