Current trend

NZD against USD cannot come out of the wide side channel. For more than a month the pair has been moving within the range of 0.6850-0.6715 due to a decrease in trading activity and an ambiguous fundamental background.

Last week, strong US GDP data was published, but the labor market subsided, and the Fed did not go on to tighten monetary policy and raise rates. Despite this, USD gained additional demand, and the pair fell to a local minimum of 0.6725, having passed more than 100 points in a few days. At the end of the week, some of the losses were played out but the downward momentum persisted.

At the moment, there are no important releases. At the end of the week RBNZ will publish a decision on the rates, and in the US there will be data on the labor market and major indices, special attention should be paid to inflation.

Support and resistance

The pair has slowed but remains in the long-term downward trend. It is possible that the approach to the lower border will be decisive: either the pair will break it down and go to new local lows, or continue to trade in narrowing consolidation. The consensus forecast indicates an increase in inflation in the US: this may give USD support in view of the increased likelihood of an increase in rates. However, the downward movement is more likely, which means that an increase in the volume of short positions at the current level or at the upper border of the side channel is expected.

Technical indicators confirm the fall outlook: on D1 chart and above, MACD is already indicating the growth of volume of short positions, and Bollinger Bands are still pointing down.

Support levels: 0.6725, 0.6710, 0.6690, 0.6650, 0.6610, 0.6575, 0.6500.

Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6790, 0.6830, 0.6850, 0.6880, 0.6895.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the current level; pending orders can be opened from the nearest resistance levels of 0.6770, 0.6790 with targets at 0.6650, 0.6575 and the stop loss at 0.6920.

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar

BuySellSpread
0.655820.655622

Scenario

TimeframeWeekly
RecommendationsSELL
Entry Point0.6726
Take Profit0.6650, 0.6575
Stop Loss0.6920
Support levels0.6500, 0.6575, 0.6610, 0.6650, 0.6690, 0.6710, 0.6725, 0.6700, 0.6790, 0.6830, 0.6850, 0.6880, 0.6895

Alternative scenario

RecommendationsSELL LIMIT
Entry Point0.6770, 0.6790
Take Profit0.6650, 0.6575
Stop Loss0.6920
Support levels0.6500, 0.6575, 0.6610, 0.6650, 0.6690, 0.6710, 0.6725, 0.6700, 0.6790, 0.6830, 0.6850, 0.6880, 0.6895
NZD/USD: growth of investment interest in USD

The material published on this page is produced by the Claws&Horns Company and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC; furthermore it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

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