Current trend

AUD is falling against USD due to favorable US macroeconomic statistics.

At the end of August, the AUD/USD pair rebounded from the key resistance level of 0.7350 and swiftly went down. During a couple of trading weeks, the price has declined by more than 200 points and has reached a new local minimum of 0.7145 (the lower border of the medium-term channel). USD was supported by the acceleration of Q2 US economic growth rates and positive data on the labor market and key indices. The RBA keeps a soft monetary policy and a low interest rate, which affects AUD negatively. Yesterday, the pair reached the lower border of the channel and gradually began to restore, reaching the level of 0.7190 by now.

Key releases, such as US labor market and indices data, are expected at the end of the week.

Support and resistance

Consensus forecasts indicate a grown in Nonfarm Payrolls and a decrease in the unemployment rate, which will affect the pair negatively by strengthening USD. In the long term, the pair can test the historical minimums of early 2016 — 0.6900, 0.6830.

An alternative scenario is a sideways consolidation if the price fails to break the level of 0.7150.

Technical indicators confirm the forecast for a further decline, the volumes of short positions of MACD are increasing, Bollinger bands are directed downwards.

Resistance levels: 0.7225, 0.7275, 0.7300, 0.7330, 0.7350, 0.7370, 0.7410.

Support levels: 0.7145, 0.7130, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.6900, 0.6830.

Trading tips

It is relevant to open short positions from the current level and open pending positions from the level 0.7330, 0.7300 with the targets at 0.7050, 0.6900, 0.6830 and stop loss 0.7390.

Australian vs US Dollar

BuySellSpread
0.727120.7268923

Scenario

TimeframeWeekly
RecommendationsSELL
Entry Point0.7195
Take Profit0.7050, 0.6900, 0.6830
Stop Loss0.7340
Support levels0.6830, 0.6900, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7130, 0.7145, 0.7225, 0.7275, 0.7300, 0.7330, 0.7350, 0.7370, 0.7410

Alternative scenario

RecommendationsSELL LIMIT
Entry Point0.7330, 0.7300
Take Profit0.7050, 0.6900, 0.6830
Stop Loss0.7390
Support levels0.6830, 0.6900, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7130, 0.7145, 0.7225, 0.7275, 0.7300, 0.7330, 0.7350, 0.7370, 0.7410
AUD/USD: towards historical lows

The material published on this page is produced by the Claws&Horns Company and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC; furthermore it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

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