The European currency continues to remain under pressure, updating local lows against the dollar at the beginning of the week. However, at the Asian session on February 12, the instrument once again attempts correction. Investors are quite optimistic about the dollar against the background of the emerging progress on the issue of the US-China trade conflict. In turn, the euro is under pressure from disappointing macroeconomic statistics, reflecting a significant slowdown in the region’s major economies, in particular Germany. In addition, the market remains in suspense before Brexit, which will undoubtedly affect the economic situation. Today, investors will focus on speeches by the heads of the German Federal Bank, the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve.
The British pound shows sluggish corrective growth at today's Asian session, correcting after a significant decline in the beginning of the week, which led to an update of the local lows of January 21. The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics in the instrument, in addition to a fairly strong position of the dollar in the market, was the disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Industrial production in December decreased by 0.5% MoM and 0.9% YoY after a decrease of 0.3% MoM and 1.3% YoY last month. The GDP in December decreased by 0.4% MoM after rising by 0.2% in November. In quarterly terms, the growth rate of the economy fell sharply from +0.6% QoQ to +0.2% QoQ, which, however, coincided with the expectations of analysts.
The Australian dollar shows moderate growth during today's Asian session, retreating from local lows of 4 January. The growth of AUD takes place against the background of the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia and is largely technical in nature. NAB Business Confidence rose from 3 to 4 points in January. NAB Business Survey jumped from 2 to 7 points over the same period, while the forecast was 4 points. At the same time, the Home Loans indicator reflected a decline in loans issued in December by 6.1% MoM after a decline of 0.9% MoM in November. Analysts had expected "bearish" trend to strengthen, but counted on only –2.0% MoM decline.
The US dollar is strengthening against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of December 28, 2018. The markets of Japan were closed on Monday due to a national holiday, so the dynamics of the instrument was subject to external factors. During the Asian session on February 12, investors are awaiting the publication of not the most optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Among it, Tertiary Industry Activity Index in January and a preliminary estimate of Machine Tool Orders in January can be highlighted.
Oil prices showed a negative trend at the beginning of the week, but managed to correct closer to the end of the afternoon session on February 11. Quotes are falling due to the growth of drilling activity in the United States, as was recorded in the Baker Hughes report at the end of the last trading week. Additional pressure comes from the process of trade negotiations between the United States and China, despite the preliminary agreements reached on the date of commencement of the official meeting of heads of the two states. If negotiations fail, the United States will raise tariffs on Chinese goods on March 1. Similar responses will be taken by China, which will further complicate the situation. Today, investors are focused on API Weekly Crude Oil Stock for February 8. The previous report reflected the growth of stocks by 2.514 million barrels.
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