Brent crude oil has been dropping since the beginning of March. Firstly, the rising dollar influences the oil price substantially. But the first and foremost reason is that OPEC leaders refused to cut production volumes. The world's demand has decreased greatly whereas the output is still extra high.
Last week, Brent quotes were in a large range and then grew sharply to a level of 57.20 owing to the sudden fall of the American currency. Fed decided to keep interest rates at the same level and put off the rise till a later date, therefore the demand for dollars has decreased considerably. At the end of the week there was a slight rise in oil quotes in response to the decline in drill rigs in the USA. Shale companies are either phased out or do not build new capacities. Few benefit from low oil prices and even key operators will not want to hold oil at a low level to their detriment.
There are almost no important macroeconomic releases that could influence the dynamics of oil today. Tomorrow, API's statistics for Crude Oil Stocks Change will be worth attention.
Support and resistance
Many statistical agencies are sure that oil will be trading above $65 per bbl in the third quarter 2015. In the medium term, the instrument may rise to a recent high at 62.80 with a probability of growth to 65.00 and 67.50.
Support levels: 53.45, 52.50, 51.70, 50.50, 49.75.
Resistance levels: 55.50, 56.00, 57.20, 58.60, 61.40, 62.80, 65.00, 67.50.
Open pending long positions from the key support levels 51.70 and 50.50 with profit fixing at 61.40 and 62.80.