Today, market participants are waiting for the data on consumer price indices in Eurozone and the USA for March. Consumer price index reflects changes in prices for a certain basket of goods and services, as well as services of the steady demand, such as clothing, fuel, food, transportation, medicine and others. This is the main indicator of inflation, the low level of which is currently prevailing, is a serious problem for the most world economies.
Forecast of the consumer price index for Eurozone is positive. It is expected that on monthly basis it will grow from 0.6% to 1.1%. On annual basis inflation can increase from -0.3% to -0.1%. Therefore, although deflation will still continue in the economies of Eurozone, its rate will decrease. Positive inflation forecast for Eurozone is associated with the launch of the quantitative easing program in March. At the last meeting of ECB, its chairman Mario Draghi gave positive evaluation of the first outcomes. He also said that the program will continue until stable growth in prices.
The American USA consumer price index will not change significantly. It is expected that on the annual basis inflation will amount to 0.0%, while on monthly basis it will grow from 0.2% to 0.3%. This is the minor rise, especially in comparison with the same index in February, which for the first time demonstrated growth after three months of deflation.
If the forecasts prove to be correct, the price in the pair EUR/USD can reach the levels of 1.0860 and 1.0900 today. However, in case the effect of the European QE program turns out to be insignificant, or inflation in the USA demonstrates strong growth, the pair can reverse and fall to 1.0720 and 1.0675.