So, US NFPR has grown. The actual index amounted to 223 thousand versus the forecast of 226 thousand, while previous index was reconsidered from 126 to 85 thousand. Unemployment rate fell to 5.4% from 5.5% a month ago. Key indices of the US stock market responded to this news by rapid growth. Quotes for oil futures followed the sample. The indicators and market’s reaction demonstrate improvement in the US economy compared to the previous month. The USD has grown against major counterparts.
We would like to highlight some events of last week. In the UK the Conservatives have won Parliamentary election, which helped the Pound to gain 270 points. However, given the data on NFPR, the Pound is likely to resume downtrend, as inflation in Britain is close to zero, while growth rate in salaries is low.
National Bank of Australia has reduced interest rates to 2.00% from 2.25%. The range of fluctuation in the currency has reached 100 points within 5 minutes; however, in the result, the Australian dollar has grown. Probably, this was caused by the positive comments of the officials from the RBA. Later, the Australian regulator has downgraded forecast for GDP growth.
Last Wednesday, unemployment rate of New Zealand became known. The index was 5.8% against expectations of 5.5%. On the last day of April the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rate at the level of 3.50%. The Bank is going to continue easing policy.
In Japan the half of last week was a public holiday. Government of the country did not make changes in the monetary policy, and, as representatives of the Central Bank of Japan said earlier, the movement in the pair USD/JPY will be limited by the level of 120.00. Since December 2014 the pair is moving in the channel of 122.00-117.00, or 120.60-118.60, if we consider a wider channel.
Chinese exports fell by 6.4% agai8nst expectation of growth by 1.6%. Imports have also decreased. Economic growth in the country demonstrates slowdown.
In Canada the number of jobs fell by 19 700 according to the data released last Friday. Although unemployment rate remained unchanged, it is still very high, at the level of 6.8%. At the moment, the pair USD/CAD is going down, testing resistance level of 1.2035 (MA 144).
Based on the above we can conclude that the NFPR did not boost rapid rise in the USD. Moreover, last week’s closing session was negative for the USD versus the Australian, New Zealand’s, Canadian and Singapore’s dollars. As for the Singapore’s dollar, the American dollar has been declining against it since mid- March. US Fed continues to hold tension in the market, stating that the strong USD can harm the US economy, and at the same time promising the increase of interest rates at any time. Nevertheless, the American economy is in the better state than many other world countries. So, this fact will not allow the decline in the American currency.