This week investors were waiting for the US fed interest rate decisions. The rates were left unchanged at the level of 0.25%, the forecast for the timing of the interest rate increase has not been unchanged either. However, the US Fed has downgraded the forecast of the economic growth in the USA: by the end of 2015 GDP will amount to 1.8–2.0%%, in 2016 — 2.4–2.7%% and by the end of 2017 — 2.1–2.5%%. By the end of 2015 interest rate will be raised twice. The American stock market reacted to this news by the sharp growth. The index Nasdaq Composite has reached the record highs, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have grown by 1%.
Since the beginning of the Asian session the AUD started to decline against the USD and by the beginning of the European session the AUD has lost over 35 points. The pair is under pressure because of probability of introduction of the soft monetary by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Neither American nor Australian news is not scheduled for the release today. Therefore, attention shall be focused on the Canadian data on the consumer price index and retail sales. Fluctuation of the USD in the pair with the Canadian dollar can affect the movement of the USD in the pair AUD/USD.
Support and resistance
The pair has been traded in the downtrend channel since July 2014. Breakdown below the level of 0.7590 will open the way to the levels of 0.7500–0.7300.
The pair has made a false breakout on the four-hour chart above resistance levels of 0.7760 (ЕМА144) and 0.7770 (ЕМА200) and now the pair is located near these levels. On the daily and four-hour charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give sell signals.
Support levels: 0.7710, 0.7675, 0.7635 and 0.7590.
Resistance levels: 0.7850, 0.7915 and 0.8025.
It is recommended to open short positions from the levels of 0.7770 and 0.7820 with the targets of 0.7710, 0.7675, 0.7635 and 0.7590. If the pair exceeds the level of 0.7915 and the indicators give positive signals, it is possible to open long positions with the targets of 0.7985, 0.8025 and 0.8110.