Today, at 04:30 (GMT+3) the index of the housing price in Australia for Q1 2015 became known. The index was below the forecast (1.6% versus 2.3%), and also lower than the previous value of 2.0%. The index of leading indicators of Australia, which was released an hour earlier, was also negative -0.3%. The Australian dollar fell after this news against the major currencies, and in the pair with the JPY. Later, the decline stopped and in the middle of European session the currency traded in the positive zone even against the USD, which is obviously the favorite in the market.
The Australian dollar is impacted by the decreasing price of the iron ore and the policy of the RBA aimed at further softening of the monetary policy and the decline in the interest rate.
The Yen is under pressure from the super-soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. On the other hand the Yen acts as safe haven currency in the period of economic and political instability in the world. The pair AUD/JPY is supported by the fundamental factor that is the difference in the interest rates of Japan (0.1%) and Australia (2%).
Today, attention in the market will be focused on the US block of news (15:30 (GMT+3)). Fluctuation of the USD in the pair with the Australian dollar will definitely affect the pair AUD/JPY.
Support and resistance
The pair AUD/JPY тis traded in the channel in the range of support levels of 94.80 (ЕМА144 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and95.10 (Fibonacci level 38 and 2%), and resistance levels 95.90 and 96.45 (Fibonacci level 96.45%). It is likely that in the medium-term the pair will continue to trade in the uptrend channel, pushing off from the indicated support levels.
On the daily chart the indicators OsMA and Stochastic are in the negative zone; on the four-hour chart they are in the neutral zone.
Support levels: 94.30, 94.80 and 95.10.
Resistance levels: 95.90, 96.45 and 96.70.
It is advisable to open long positions from the levels of 94.30, 94.80 and 95.00 with the short targets of 95.90, 96.40, 96.70, 97.00 and 97.85 and the long target of 100.00 (upper limit of the channel). If the pair breaks down below the level of 94.30, it will make sense to open short positions with the targets of целями 93.45 (Fibonacci level 23.6%). If downward movement continues the targets will be: 92.75, 92.00 and 90.75.