Today, the most important macroeconomic statistics is released in the United States. It includes Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls for June. Usually, the US labor market statistics is released on the first Friday of the month, but this time all data is reported a day earlier due to the US Independence Day.
Leading indicators give controversial signals. ADP Employment Change significantly exceeded expectations and reached 237K. At the same time, Challenger Job Cuts increased by 42.7%, from 41.034 to 44.842 layoffs in June. Jobless Claims Report, released by the US Department of Labor, does not look promising. The number of initial jobless claims hovers around 272K, while the number of continuing jobless claims grew from 2214 to 2235K.
After a slight increase in the unemployment rate in May, this indicator is expected to go back to 5.4% in June. US unemployment ratу hovers around 5.4-5.5% for the past four months. Nonfarm Payrolls statistics is more interesting. In June, the number is expected to reduce from 280K to 230K, which is no surprise, given the significant increase seen last month. Moreover, the indicator may even be below the forecast and significantly affect the US currency.
Amid the negative scenario, the US dollar could weaken significantly against the other major currencies. In particular, the EUR/USD pair may rise to 1.1140 and 1.1240. But if the actual figures are better than expected, the price may go down to levels 1.1000 and 1.0930.