Last week the pair continued to trade within a narrow downward channel. On Wednesday, the price headed up, supported by favorable macroeconomic statistics on labor market and key U.S. indexes. But, at the end of the trading week, the pair went back down. On Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims statistics was more than 10 K applications above the forecast, the indicator Nonfarm Payrolls was also in the red zone.
This week opened with a gap down. The U.S. dollar was weakened by the fall in the U.S. stock markets amid the events in Greece. But, within a few hours, the pair was back to almost the Friday level. When the price reached the local minimum and the key support level 122.10, the demand for the U.S. dollar increased and the pair went up amid the fall in the Japanese Leading Indicators and Coincident Indicators Index. ISM Non-Manufacturing and Labor Market Conditions Indexes for June are released in the U.S. today.
Support and resistance
This week, the price is likely to go slightly down due to weak macroeconomic indicators. However, the lower is the price, the more significant should be the demand for the U.S. currency.
In the medium term, a significant decline to the support levels 121.30, 120.60 (the lower line of the upward channel) is expected. Then, the pair is likely to turn up and grow towards the recent local highs 125.00, 126.25.
Support levels: 122.00, 121.30, 120.60, 120.00, 118.65, 118.30, 117.10, 116.00.
Resistance Levels: 122.60, 123.00, 123.60, 124.30, 125.00, 125.70, 126.26.
Open long positions from key support levels 121.30, 120.60 with take-profit at 125.00, 125.70.