Today, markets will focus their attention on the US, where key publications on the Consumer Price Index and the FOMC Minutes are coming out.
The Consumer Price Index is the major indicator of inflation in the economy, as it shows a retail prices change for a fixed basket of goods and services. Experts forecast its small yearly growth from 0.1% to 0.2%. At the same time, Average Hourly Earnings, which also represent a potential inflation change, grew in July from 0% to 0.2%. Thus, while the Consumer Price Index growth looks possible, the market reaction to it is going to be insignificant. Let us remind that the level of inflation serves as the target for the Fed when they consider the interest rates change.
Another important publication that is due today is the FOMC Minutes. July Minutes did not contain any hints regarding the dates of the interest rate increase in the US. Thus, the anticipated rate hike in September may not happen. Today’s Minutes could provide the markets with some answers.
According to the fundamental factors, the USD strengthening against its major competitors is likely during the day. In particular, the EUR/USD pair may reach the levels of 1.1015-1.1000 and 1.0980. If the Consumer Price Index data comes out negative, the pair continues growing towards 1.1080, 1.1100, and possibly to 1.1125.